AP

Atletico Paranaense

Brazil Série A·Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Next match Coritiba v Atletico Paranaense Sat 12 Sept, 01:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Atletico Paranaense — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming26 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

95.6%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

7th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

26

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept01:00 Coritiba A — 2.43Grosvenor — Sat 12 Sept01:00 Coritiba A — 2.70William Hill —

Form

last 6

LDWDWD 9 pts from 6

A Cruzeiro 1–3 -1.1

H Fluminense 3–3 -0.9

A Botafogo 3–2 +2.1

H RB Bragantino 1–1 -0.9

A Santos 2–0 +1.9

A Corinthians 0–0 +0.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (26 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+34.4 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 1.08 #4 of 20

Points over model expectation 34.4 #4 of 20

Clean sheets 8 #7 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.46 #8 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.08 #4 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 8 #7 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

57%

Scored before half time

of 7 goals

29%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 7 goals

14%

From the penalty spot

of 7 goals

44%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 9 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 26 stored fixtures (16 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept01:00in 4h 09m
   Coritiba Atletico Paranaense

   BSA
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 12 Sept01:00in 4h 09m
   Coritiba Atletico Paranaense

   BSA

   Regular Season - 27
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 4 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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