Birmingham

Next match Birmingham v Millwall Tue 3 Nov, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Birmingham — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming12 Results held

Model Strength

58.5

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

5th

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Tue 3 Nov20:00

Millwall H — no price —

Form

last 6

LWWWDW 13 pts from 6

A Cardiff 0–1 -1.7

H QPR 3–0 +1.4

H Preston 4–0 +1.1

A West Brom 1–0 +2.0

H Middlesbrough 2–2 -0.8

A Derby 2–1 +2.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (12 matches) Model expected (12 priced) Ahead Behind

+4.1 points against the model's expectation over the 12 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 1 #2 of 24

Clean sheets 4 #6 of 24

Goals scored 1.67 #7 of 24

Points over model expectation 4.1 #8 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.67 #7 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #2 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 4 #6 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 16 goals

13%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 16 goals

From the penalty spot

of 16 goals

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 12 stored fixtures (29 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Recorded form LLWWWW last 12: 2 scored / 0.67 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 33% · clean sheets 50% (40 results held)

A Cardiff 0-1 L · A Cardiff City 0-1 L · H QPR 3-0 W · H Queens Park Rangers 3-0 W · H Preston 4-0 W

Upcoming fixtures

Tue 3 Nov20:00in 7d

Birmingham Millwall
EFL

Regular Season - 14

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
IN	L. Millar	from Hull City	Loan	2026-08-31
IN	Junior Wilson	from Aston Villa	Free agent	2026-07-07
OUT	I. Osman	to Brighton	Return from loan	2026-05-30
OUT	J. Beadle	to Brighton	Return from loan	2026-05-30
IN	P. Roberts	from Sunderland	Transfer	2026-02-01
OUT	P. Roberts	to Sunderland	Return from loan	2026-01-31
OUT	L. Koumas	to Liverpool	Return from loan	2026-01-28
IN	I. Osman	from Brighton	Loan	2026-01-18
OUT	E. Cashin	to Brighton	Return from loan	2026-01-04
IN	P. Roberts	from Sunderland	Loan	2025-09-01

Team data: fresh · collected 16 h ago

Explore

Championship Next: Birmingham v Millwall Search Birmingham matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Birmingham play next?

Birmingham's next fixture in the snapshot is Birmingham v Millwall on Tue 3 Nov, 20:00 UK time (Championship).