Bolton

Next match Charlton v Bolton Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Bolton — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming12 Results held

Model Strength

53.6

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.5%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

24th

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Tue 3 Nov19:45

Charlton A — no price —

Form

last 6

LDWLWW 10 pts from 6

H Middlesbrough 1–5 -1.5

A Southampton 0–0 +0.3

A Wolves 3–1 +2.1

H Stoke City 1–2 -1.0

A Norwich 4–3 +2.5

H Cardiff 1–0 +1.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (12 matches) Model expected (11 priced) Ahead Behind

+2.7 points against the model's expectation over the 11 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 1.92 #22 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.33 #13 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.92 #22 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 3 #10 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

53%

Scored before half time

of 15 goals

20%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 15 goals

From the penalty spot

of 15 goals

29%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 21 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 12 stored fixtures (36 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Recorded form LLDDWL last 12: 1.58 scored / 2 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 67% · clean sheets 33% (40 results held)

H Middlesbrough 1-5 L · H Middlesbrough 1-5 L · A Southampton 0-0 D · A Southampton 0-0 D · A Wolves 3-1 W

Upcoming fixtures

Tue 3 Nov19:45in 7d

Charlton Bolton
EFL

Regular Season - 14

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
IN	S. Iling-Junior	from Aston Villa	Loan	2026-08-13
IN	Luca Stephenson	from Liverpool	Transfer	2026-07-01
IN	A. Famewo	from Hull City	Transfer	2026-06-30
OUT	Mason Paul James Burstow	to Hull City	Return from loan	2026-06-29
OUT	A. Cozier-Duberry	to Brighton	Return from loan	2026-05-30
OUT	T. Sharman-Lowe	to Chelsea	Return from loan	2026-01-13
IN	Mason Paul James Burstow	from Hull City	Loan	2025-07-27
IN	A. Cozier-Duberry	from Brighton	Loan	2025-07-04
OUT	J. Matete	to Sunderland	Back from Loan	2025-07-01
OUT	A. Murphy	to Newcastle	Back from Loan	2025-07-01

Team data: fresh · collected 16 h ago

Explore

Championship Next: Charlton v Bolton Search Bolton matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Bolton play next?

Bolton's next fixture in the snapshot is Charlton v Bolton on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 UK time (Championship).