Burnley

Next match Swansea City v Burnley Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Burnley — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming6 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 2 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.5%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

3rd

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sat 12 Sept15:00

Swansea City A — 3.50

Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 6

DLDLLD 3 pts from 6

A Wrexham 1–1 -0.1

H Bristol City 1–2 -1.6

H Middlesbrough 1–1 -0.6

A Norwich 1–4 —

A West Brom 1–3 -1.1

H West Ham 2–2 -0.7

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (6 matches) Model expected (6 priced) Ahead Behind

-4.1 points against the model's expectation over the 6 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 0 #23 of 24

Goals conceded 2.17 #24 of 24

Points over model expectation -4.1 #24 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.17 #16 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2.17 #24 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 0 #23 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 4 goals

Scored from 75 minutes

of 4 goals

From the penalty spot

of 4 goals

25%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 8 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures (12 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Home ground: Turf Moor gazetteer

Recorded form DLDLDL last 12: 1 scored / 1.92 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 83% · clean sheets 8% (40 results held)

A Wrexham 1-1 D · H Bristol City 1-2 L · H Middlesbrough 1-1 D · A Norwich 1-4 L · A Bradford 0-0 D

Upcoming fixtures

Sat 12 Sept15:00in 18h 52m

Swansea City Burnley
EFL

Regular Season - 7

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
IN	Igor	from Brighton	Transfer	2026-08-31
IN	Igor	from Brighton	Transfer	2026-08-30
IN	Max Alleyne	from Manchester City	Loan	2026-08-13
IN	D. Satpaev	from Chelsea	Loan	2026-08-13
OUT	M. Dúbravka	to Tottenham	Free agent	2026-06-30
IN	A. Broja	from Chelsea	Transfer	2025-08-08
IN	M. Dúbravka	from Newcastle	Transfer	2025-08-07
IN	L. Ugochukwu	from Chelsea	Transfer	2025-08-06
OUT	J. Trafford	to Manchester City	Transfer	2025-07-29
IN	K. Walker	from Manchester City	Transfer	2025-07-05

Team data: fresh · collected 38 min ago

Explore

Championship Next: Swansea City v Burnley Search Burnley matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Burnley play next?

Burnley's next fixture in the snapshot is Swansea City v Burnley on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time (Championship).