Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Derby — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming12 Results held
Model Strength
62.6
Developing
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
97.5%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
22nd
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
12
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Form
last 6DLLDDL
3 pts from 6
A
Sheffield Utd
1–1
+0.5
H
Stoke City
0–1
-0.9
A
QPR
1–4
-0.9
H
Wrexham
1–1
-0.5
A
Burnley
1–1
+0.0
H
Birmingham
1–2
-1.8
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (12 matches)
Model expected (11 priced)
Ahead
Behind
-5.0 points against the model's expectation over the 11 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionWeaknesses
Clean sheets
1
#19 of 24
Goals conceded
1.75
#20 of 24
Points over model expectation
-5
#22 of 24
Goals scored
0.83
#23 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
0.83
#23 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.75
#20 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
1
#19 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed57%
Scored before half time
of 7 goals
29%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 7 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 7 goals
29%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 17 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 12 stored fixtures
(24 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
EFLNo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Estádio Municipal Adérito Sena gazetteer
Recorded form
DDLLLL
last 12: 0.83 scored / 1.67 conceded per game · Over 2.5 33% · BTTS 83% · clean sheets 0% (40 results held)
A Sheffield Utd 1-1 D · A Sheffield United 1-1 D · H Stoke City 0-1 L · H Stoke City 0-1 L · A QPR 1-4 L
Upcoming fixtures
-
Tue 3 Nov19:45in 7dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | N. Bilokapić | from Ipswich | Free agent | 2026-09-03 |
| IN | E. Cashin | from Brighton | Loan | 2026-08-31 |
| IN | D. Ozoh | from Crystal Palace | Transfer | 2026-08-31 |
| IN | D. Ozoh | from Crystal Palace | Transfer | 2026-08-30 |
| IN | S. Szmodics | from Ipswich | Loan | 2026-07-31 |
| OUT | S. Szmodics | to Ipswich | Return from loan | 2026-06-29 |
| OUT | D. Ozoh | to Crystal Palace | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| IN | S. Szmodics | from Ipswich | Loan | 2026-02-01 |
| OUT | O. Beck | to Liverpool | Return from loan | 2026-01-03 |
| IN | D. Ozoh | from Crystal Palace | Loan | 2025-07-29 |
Team data: fresh · collected 16 h ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Derby play next?
Derby's next fixture in the snapshot is Derby v Norwich on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 UK time (Championship).