E

Excelsior

Dutch Eredivisie·Stade Raphaël Babet

Next match Excelsior v FC Utrecht Sun 13 Sept, 11:15

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Excelsior — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming5 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

15th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

5

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sun 13 Sept11:15 FC Utrecht H — 2.28Betfair Exchange — Sat 19 Sept19:00 Ajax A — 7.50Unibet —

Form

last 5

DWWLW 10 pts from 5

A NEC Nijmegen 2–2 +0.5

A Willem II 3–0 +1.9

H Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 +1.9

H PSV Eindhoven 1–2 -0.3

A Cambuur 4–0 +1.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (5 matches) Model expected (5 priced) Ahead Behind

+5.8 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 1 #1 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #1 of 18

Points over model expectation 5.8 #2 of 18

Goals scored 2.4 #5 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.4 #5 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #1 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #1 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

57%

Scored before half time

of 7 goals

29%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 7 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 7 goals

33%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 3 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures (10 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

ERE Dutch Eredivisie 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sun 13 Sept11:15in 38h 22m
   Excelsior FC Utrecht

   ERE

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 19 Sept19:00in 8d
   Ajax Excelsior

   ERE

   Regular Season - 7
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 6 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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