FD

Fortuna Düsseldorf

3. Liga - Germany·Merkur Spiel-Arena

Next match Fortuna Düsseldorf v MSV Duisburg Sat 12 Sept, 13:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Fortuna Düsseldorf — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming4 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

91.8%

Moderate

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

Not enough data

the model has not priced enough of this competition to rank its clubs

Fixtures Analysed

4

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept13:00 MSV Duisburg H — 2.70Unibet — Tue 15 Sept18:00 Jahn Regensburg A — 2.20Unibet —

Form

last 4

DWLL 4 pts from 4

A Fortuna Köln 0–0 -0.3

H Stuttgart II 1–0 +1.4

H Hoffenheim II 0–2 —

A Waldhof Mannheim 1–2 —

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (2 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.1 points against the model's expectation over the 2 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 2 #2 of 20

Goals conceded 1 #3 of 20

Weaknesses

Goals scored 0.5 #18 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.5 #18 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #3 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #2 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

0%

Scored before half time

of 1 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 1 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 1 goals

—

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 0 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (1 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

3LG 3. Liga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No league table for this tie 3. Liga - Germany is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept13:00in 17h 24m
   Fortuna Düsseldorf MSV Duisburg

   3LG

   Regular Season - 5
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 15 Sept18:00in 4d
   Jahn Regensburg Fortuna Düsseldorf

   3LG

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

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