M

Millwall

Championship·The Den

Next match Millwall v Derby County Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Millwall — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming12 Results held

Model Strength

56

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

8th

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

12

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sat 31 Oct15:00 Derby County H — 1.73Casumo —

Form

last 6

LDLWDD 6 pts from 6

A Portsmouth 1–2 -1.1

H Lincoln 2–2 -1.0

H Swansea 0–1 -1.7

A Preston 1–0 +1.7

H West Ham 2–2 -0.6

A Middlesbrough 2–2 +0.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (12 matches) Model expected (12 priced) Ahead Behind

-0.4 points against the model's expectation over the 12 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 24

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 1.67 #17 of 24

Points over model expectation -0.4 #18 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.58 #9 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.67 #17 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 4 #2 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

56%

Scored before half time

of 16 goals

31%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 16 goals

6%

From the penalty spot

of 16 goals

28%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 18 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 12 stored fixtures (34 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct15:00in 4d
   Millwall Derby County

   EFL

   Regular Season - 13
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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