Nacional

Primeira Liga - PortugalEstádio da Madeira

Next match Arouca v Nacional Sun 1 Nov, 15:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Nacional — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming9 Results held

Model Strength

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

17th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sun 1 Nov15:30

Arouca A — 4.20

Betfair —

Form

last 6

WLLLLL 3 pts from 6

H SC Braga 1–0 +1.3

A Rio Ave 2–3 -1.1

H Famalicao 0–4 -1.2

H Alverca 1–3 -1.6

A Sporting CP 0–2 -1.0

H Estrela 2–3 —

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (9 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

-0.5 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 2 #16 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.11 #11 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2 #16 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #12 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 6 goals

17%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 6 goals

From the penalty spot

of 6 goals

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 15 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 9 stored fixtures (21 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

PRI Primeira Liga - Portugal 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Home ground: Estádio da Madeira gazetteer

Recorded form LWWLWW last 12: 1.5 scored / 1.08 conceded per game · Over 2.5 42% · BTTS 25% · clean sheets 50% (40 results held)

H Liverpool Montevideo 0-1 L · H SC Braga 1-0 W · H Deportivo Maldonado 3-2 W · A Sanjoanense 0-1 L · H Rentistas 3-0 W

Upcoming fixtures

Sun 1 Nov15:30in 6d

Arouca Nacional
PRI

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 5 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
OUT	Jorge Wiston Curbelo Garis	to Arsenal	Free	2014-07-14
IN	Caue Fernandes Silveira	from Liverpool		2014-07-01
OUT	Caue Fernandes Silveira	to Liverpool	Loan	2014-01-17
OUT	R. Halliche	to Fulham	€ 2.5M	2010-08-24
OUT	Hilário	to Chelsea	Free	2006-08-01

Team data: fresh · collected 5 h ago

Explore

Primeira Liga - Portugal Next: Arouca v Nacional Search Nacional matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Nacional play next?

Nacional's next fixture in the snapshot is Arouca v Nacional on Sun 1 Nov, 15:30 UK time (Primeira Liga - Portugal).