Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Newport County — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming13 Results held
Model Strength
69
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.1%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
11th
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
13
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
William HillForm
last 6LDDWDW
9 pts from 6
A
Cheltenham
0–1
-1.1
A
Rotherham
2–2
-0.1
H
York
1–1
-0.5
H
Colchester
1–0
+1.0
A
Gillingham
0–0
+0.1
H
Grimsby
2–1
+1.5
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (13 matches)
Model expected (13 priced)
Ahead
Behind
-0.2 points against the model's expectation over the 13 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Clean sheets
4
#4 of 24
Goals conceded
1.23
#7 of 24
Weaknesses
Points over model expectation
-0.2
#17 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.23
#11 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.23
#7 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
4
#4 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed25%
Scored before half time
of 12 goals
25%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 12 goals
17%
From the penalty spot
of 12 goals
40%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 10 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 13 stored fixtures
(22 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
L2No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Rodney Parade gazetteer
Recorded form
LLDDDD
last 12: 1.17 scored / 1 conceded per game · Over 2.5 42% · BTTS 58% · clean sheets 25% (31 results held)
A Cheltenham 0-1 L · A Cheltenham Town 0-1 L · A Rotherham 2-2 D · A Rotherham United 2-2 D · H York 1-1 D
Upcoming fixtures
-
Fri 30 Oct19:45in 4dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | M. Jacob | from Hull City | Loan | 2026-09-01 |
| IN | M. Jacob | from Hull City | Loan | 2026-08-31 |
| IN | M. Dibley-Dias | from Fulham | Loan | 2026-08-25 |
| IN | Alfie Merritt | from Bournemouth | Loan | 2026-08-06 |
| OUT | H. Ogunneye | to Manchester United | Return from loan | 2026-01-13 |
| IN | H. Ogunneye | from Manchester United | Loan | 2025-07-15 |
| IN | C. McNeill | from Manchester United | Loan | 2023-01-31 |
| IN | N. Moriah-Welsh | from Bournemouth | Loan | 2022-08-10 |
| IN | A. Lewis | from Liverpool | Loan | 2022-07-01 |
| OUT | F. Azaz | to Aston Villa | 2022-07-01 |
Team data: fresh · collected 17 h ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Newport County play next?
Newport County's next fixture in the snapshot is Newport County v Chesterfield FC on Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 UK time (League 2).