Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Southampton — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming6 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 1 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.8%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
12th
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
6
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Betfair ExchangeForm
last 6WDDWWL
11 pts from 6
H
Swansea
3–1
+1.4
A
Lincoln
1–1
-0.1
A
Birmingham
1–1
-0.1
H
Millwall
5–1
—
H
Stoke City
3–1
+1.4
A
Watford
1–2
-1.0
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (6 matches)
Model expected (6 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+4.6 points against the model's expectation over the 6 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
2.33
#2 of 24
Points over model expectation
4.6
#5 of 24
Goals conceded
1.17
#8 of 24
Weaknesses
Clean sheets
0
#22 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
2.33
#2 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.17
#8 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
0
#22 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed60%
Scored before half time
of 10 goals
20%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 10 goals
10%
From the penalty spot
of 10 goals
25%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 4 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures
(14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
EFLNo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: St Mary's Stadium gazetteer
Recorded form
WWDDDD
last 12: 2 scored / 1.17 conceded per game · Over 2.5 50% · BTTS 83% · clean sheets 17% (40 results held)
H Swansea 3-1 W · H Swansea City 3-1 W · A Lincoln 1-1 D · A Lincoln City 1-1 D · A Birmingham 1-1 D
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 12 Sept15:00in 18h 53mnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | S. Charles | to Fulham | Transfer | 2026-08-10 |
| IN | D. Mubama | from Manchester City | Loan | 2026-08-10 |
| IN | A. Ramsdale | from Newcastle | Return from loan | 2026-06-29 |
| OUT | T. Dibling | to Everton | Transfer | 2025-08-25 |
| OUT | A. Ramsdale | to Newcastle | Loan | 2025-08-02 |
| OUT | L. Ugochukwu | to Chelsea | Back from Loan | 2025-07-01 |
| IN | M. Sesay | from Chelsea | - | 2025-06-30 |
| IN | R. Fraser | from Newcastle | Free | 2024-08-30 |
| IN | A. Ramsdale | from Arsenal | 21.4M | 2024-08-30 |
| IN | L. Ugochukwu | from Chelsea | Loan | 2024-08-16 |
Team data: fresh · collected 37 min ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Southampton play next?
Southampton's next fixture in the snapshot is Southampton v Bristol City on Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time (Championship).