Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Sturm Graz — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming10 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
94.2%
Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
1st
of 12 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
10
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
William HillForm
last 6DWWLWL
10 pts from 6
H
Ried
2–2
-0.8
H
Grazer AK
6–1
+1.2
A
Austria Vienna
2–0
+1.8
A
Red Bull Salzburg
0–3
-1.0
H
Lask Linz
2–1
+1.2
A
Rapid Vienna
1–3
—
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (10 matches)
Model expected (10 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+5.3 points against the model's expectation over the 10 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
1.8
#4 of 12
Goals conceded
1.2
#4 of 12
Points over model expectation
5.3
#4 of 12
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.8
#4 of 12
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.2
#4 of 12
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
3
#5 of 12
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed54%
Scored before half time
of 13 goals
15%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 13 goals
8%
From the penalty spot
of 13 goals
30%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 10 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures
(23 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
BUNNo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Merkur Arena gazetteer
Recorded form
DWWLWW
last 12: 1.67 scored / 1.25 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 42% · clean sheets 33% (40 results held)
H Ried 2-2 D · H Marseille 1-0 W · H Grazer AK 6-1 W · A Bournemouth 0-3 L · A Austria Vienna 2-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sun 1 Nov13:30in 5dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | K. Scherpen | to Brighton | Back from Loan | 2025-07-01 |
| OUT | M. Yalcouyé | to Brighton | Back from Loan | 2025-07-01 |
| OUT | M. Yalcouyé | to Brighton | Return from loan | 2025-06-29 |
| IN | M. Yalcouyé | from Brighton | Loan | 2024-08-29 |
| IN | M. Biereth | from Arsenal | € 4M | 2024-07-08 |
| OUT | V. Jaroš | to Liverpool | 2024-07-01 | |
| OUT | Javi Serrano | to Atletico Madrid | 2024-07-01 | |
| IN | M. Biereth | from Arsenal | Loan | 2024-01-19 |
| IN | V. Jaroš | from Liverpool | Loan | 2024-01-09 |
| IN | K. Scherpen | from Brighton | Loan | 2023-07-06 |
Team data: fresh · collected 2 h ago
Explore
Austrian Football Bundesliga
Next: Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz
Search Sturm Graz matches
Opportunity board
Frequently asked questions
When do Sturm Graz play next?
Sturm Graz's next fixture in the snapshot is Wolfsberger AC v Sturm Graz on Sun 1 Nov, 13:30 UK time (Austrian Football Bundesliga).