Swansea

Next match Portsmouth v Swansea Tue 3 Nov, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Swansea — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming12 Results held

Model Strength

56.2

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.9%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

6th

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Tue 3 Nov19:45

Portsmouth A — no price —

Form

last 6

LLWWWW 12 pts from 6

A QPR 0–5 -1.3

H West Ham 0–1 -1.5

A Millwall 1–0 +1.9

H Norwich 2–1 +1.1

A Lincoln 2–1 +2.0

H Burnley 3–1 +1.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (12 matches) Model expected (12 priced) Ahead Behind

+7.4 points against the model's expectation over the 12 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 24

Points over model expectation 7.4 #3 of 24

Goals conceded 1.08 #5 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.33 #16 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.08 #5 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 5 #1 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

43%

Scored before half time

of 14 goals

14%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 14 goals

From the penalty spot

of 14 goals

17%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 12 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 12 stored fixtures (26 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Recorded form LLLLWW last 12: 1.33 scored / 1.5 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 50% · clean sheets 17% (40 results held)

A QPR 0-5 L · A Queens Park Rangers 0-5 L · H West Ham 0-1 L · H West Ham United 0-1 L · A Millwall 1-0 W

Upcoming fixtures

Tue 3 Nov19:45in 7d

Portsmouth Swansea
EFL

Regular Season - 14

not modelled

model building

—

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

	Player	Club	Type	Date
IN	J. Monga	from Manchester City	Loan	2026-08-31
IN	J. Seelt	from Sunderland	Loan	2026-08-26
OUT	Gustavo Gomes	to Brentford	Return from loan	2026-06-29
OUT	I. Samuels-Smith	to Chelsea	Return from loan	2026-05-30
OUT	M. Yalcouyé	to Brighton	Return from loan	2026-05-30
IN	Gustavo Gomes	from Brentford	Loan	2026-01-21
IN	J. Ward	from Crystal Palace	Free agent	2026-01-08
IN	I. Samuels-Smith	from Chelsea	Loan	2025-09-02
IN	M. Stamenić	from Nottingham Forest	Transfer	2025-08-20
IN	M. Yalcouyé	from Brighton	Loan	2025-08-14

Team data: fresh · collected 18 h ago

Explore

Championship Next: Portsmouth v Swansea Search Swansea matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Swansea play next?

Swansea's next fixture in the snapshot is Portsmouth v Swansea on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 UK time (Championship).