VN

Vila Nova

Serie B

Next match Vila Nova v Juventude Sat 31 Oct, 21:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Vila Nova — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming35 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

95.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

20th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

35

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sat 31 Oct21:00 Juventude H — no price —

Form

last 6

LDWDWW 11 pts from 6

A São Bernardo 2–3 -0.4

H Novorizontino 2–2 +0.1

A Nautico Recife 2–0 +2.8

H Cuiaba 0–0 -0.2

A Botafogo SP 1–0 +2.5

H Londrina 2–0 +1.5

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (35 matches) Model expected (17 priced) Ahead Behind

+45.1 points against the model's expectation over the 17 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Points over model expectation 45.1 #1 of 20

Goals scored 1.43 #3 of 20

Clean sheets 14 #5 of 20

Goals conceded 1.03 #7 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.43 #3 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.03 #7 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 14 #5 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

52%

Scored before half time

of 21 goals

14%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 21 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 21 goals

31%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 35 stored fixtures (34 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SB Serie B 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 31 Oct21:00in 5d
   Vila Nova Juventude

   SB

   Regular Season - 36
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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