SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Vila Nova
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Vila Nova

Brazil Série B
Next match Avai v Vila Nova Tue 15 Sept, 01:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Vila Nova — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming27 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
95.3%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
15th
of 20 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
27
Held

Next fixtures

1 priced
Tue 15 Sept01:30 Avai crest Avai A — 2.90Betway —

Form

last 6
WLWDWW 13 pts from 6
H Goias 2–0 +1.3
A Athletic Club 0–5 -0.6
H Ceara 2–0 —
A Operario-PR 0–0 -0.3
H Ponte Preta 6–0 +1.4
A Atletico Goianiense 2–0 +2.6
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (27 matches) Model expected (9 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 27 matches 0 24 47
+36.7 points against the model's expectation over the 9 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Strengths
Goals scored 1.44 #3 of 20
Points over model expectation 36.7 #3 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 1.44 #3 of 20
Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 1.11 #10 of 20
Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets 9 #9 of 20

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
40%
Scored before half time
of 10 goals
30%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 10 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 10 goals
14%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 7 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 27 stored fixtures (17 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
BSB Brazil Série B 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table
No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Recorded form WLLWDW last 12: 1.17 scored / 1.5 conceded per game · Over 2.5 33% · BTTS 8% · clean sheets 42% (17 results held)
H Goias 2-0 W · A Athletic Club 0-5 L · A Athletic Club (MG) 0-5 L · H Ceara 2-0 W · A Operario-PR 0-0 D

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Tue 15 Sept01:30in 3d
    Avai crestAvai Vila Nova crestVila Nova
    BSB
    Regular Season - 28
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Explore

Brazil Série B Next: Avai v Vila Nova Search Vila Nova matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Vila Nova play next?
Vila Nova's next fixture in the snapshot is Avai v Vila Nova on Tue 15 Sept, 01:30 UK time (Brazil Série B).