V

Vitoria

Brazil Série A·Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Next match Mirassol v Vitoria Sun 13 Sept, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Vitoria — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming26 Results held

Model Strength

57

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.5%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

-100.0%

3 settled

Model Rank

13th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

26

Held

Next fixtures

1 priced

Sun 13 Sept20:00 Mirassol A — 4.90Matchbook —

Form

last 6

WLLWLL 6 pts from 6

H Gremio 1–0 +1.7

A Atletico-MG 1–2 -0.6

H Bahia 0–2 -1.5

H Botafogo 1–0 +1.6

A Flamengo 0–2 -0.4

H Palmeiras 0–4 -1.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (26 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+23.5 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 10 #4 of 20

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 1.42 #14 of 20

Goals scored 0.96 #20 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.96 #20 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.42 #14 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 10 #4 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

0%

Scored before half time

of 3 goals

33%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 3 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 3 goals

17%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 6 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 26 stored fixtures (9 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sun 13 Sept20:00in 47h 07m
   Mirassol Vitoria

   BSA

   Regular Season - 27
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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