W

Watford

Championship·Vicarage Road

Next match Watford v Stoke City Sat 12 Sept, 15:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Watford — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming6 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 1 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.7%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

10th

of 24 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

6

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Sat 12 Sept15:00 Stoke City H — 2.46Matchbook — Fri 18 Sept20:00 Bristol City A — no price —

Form

last 6

WLLDDW 8 pts from 6

H Preston 2–1 +1.4

A West Brom 0–1 -1.1

A Swansea 0–2 -1.1

H West Ham 1–1 —

A Wrexham 1–1 -0.1

H Southampton 2–1 +1.3

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (6 matches) Model expected (6 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.5 points against the model's expectation over the 6 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 1.17 #7 of 24

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 0 #21 of 24

Goals scored 1 #22 of 24

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1 #22 of 24

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.17 #7 of 24

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 0 #21 of 24

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

50%

Scored before half time

of 4 goals

25%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 4 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 4 goals

0%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 4 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures (8 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

EFL Championship 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept15:00in 18h 53m
   Watford Stoke City

   EFL

   Regular Season - 7
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Fri 18 Sept20:00in 7d
   Bristol City Watford

   EFL

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

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