Athletic Bilbao v Elche CF — La Liga - Spain prediction, odds and analysis
LALAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Athletic BilbaovElche CF
Sat 12 Sept, 17:30Athletic Bilbao1.44Grosvenor
Draw5.10Betfair
Elche CF8.40Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 11 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: San Mamés · cap 53,289 (home ground — gazetteer)Kickoff weather: 24.6°C · rain 0 mm · wind 8.9 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.58 / 1.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at Cuiaba (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Atletico Madrid (H) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Club Atlético de Madrid (H) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-09-04 | vs Vila Nova (H) | 5-0 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | at Celta Vigo (A) | 2-0 | W |
LLLLLD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.42 / 2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | vs Real Sociedad (H) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-09-07 | vs Real Sociedad de Fútbol (H) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-28 | at Racing Santander (A) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-28 | at Real Racing Club de Santander (A) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Barcelona (H) | 0-5 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao | 10 | 6 | 4 | +1 | WWLL |
| Elche CF | 19 | 1 | 4 | -7 | LLLD |
Athletic Bilbao: 6 pts behind 1st · 5 pts above 20th
Elche CF: 11 pts behind 1st · level on points with 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Athletic Bilbao 3 wins2 drawsElche CF 1avg 2 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Athletic Club v Elche CF | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-19 | Elche CF v Athletic Club | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 2023-05-28 | Ath Bilbao v Elche | 0-1 | Primera Division |
| 2022-09-11 | Elche v Ath Bilbao | 1-4 | Primera Division |
| 2022-04-03 | Ath Bilbao v Elche | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 2021-08-16 | Elche v Ath Bilbao | 0-0 | Primera Division |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Athletic Bilbaosnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| D. Vivian | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| A. Gorosabel | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| B. Prados Diaz | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| U. Vencedor | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Djalo | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| N. Serrano | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| U. Egiluz | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| P. Canales | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| D. Vivian | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| A. Gorosabel | Missing Fixture | Transfer negotiations |
| B. Prados Diaz | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| U. Vencedor | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| A. Djalo | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| N. Serrano | Missing Fixture | Coach's decision |
| U. Egiluz | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Elche CFsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| G. Diangana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Y. Santiago | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Osorio | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Boayar | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| G. Diangana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Y. Santiago | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Osorio | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Boayar | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| T. Lemar | Questionable | Coach's decision |
| G. Diangana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Y. Santiago | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Osorio | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Boayar | Questionable | Muscle Injury |
| T. Lemar | Questionable | Coach's decision |
| G. Diangana | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Athletic Bilbao play Elche CF?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 UK time in the La Liga - Spain.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 11 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.