Celta Vigo v Málaga — La Liga - Spain prediction, odds and analysis
LALAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Celta VigovMálaga
Sun 13 Sept, 13:00Celta Vigo1.77Smarkets
Draw3.90Smarkets
Málaga5.40Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 13 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Abanca-Balaídos · cap 24,791 (home ground — gazetteer)Kickoff weather: 31°C · rain 0 mm · wind 4.1 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
DDDDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 0.75 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | at Getafe (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-07 | at Getafe CF (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-03 | at Real Sociedad (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-03 | at Real Sociedad de Fútbol (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Athletic Club (H) | 0-2 | L |
DDLDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.25 / 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | vs Levante (H) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | vs Levante UD (H) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | at Real Madrid (A) | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-08-24 | vs Deportivo La Coruna (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-19 | at Atletico Madrid (A) | 0-2 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo | 16 | 3 | 5 | -3 | DDLLD |
| Málaga | 18 | 2 | 4 | -6 | DLDL |
Celta Vigo: 9 pts behind 1st · 2 pts above 20th
Málaga: 10 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Celta Vigo 2 wins1 drawMálaga 3avg 2.2 goalsBTTS 33%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-03-18 | Celta v Malaga | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| 2017-10-29 | Malaga v Celta | 2-1 | Primera Division |
| 2017-05-07 | Malaga v Celta | 3-0 | Primera Division |
| 2017-01-08 | Celta v Malaga | 3-1 | Primera Division |
| 2016-05-08 | Celta v Malaga | 1-0 | Primera Division |
| 2016-01-02 | Malaga v Celta | 2-0 | Primera Division |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Celta Vigosnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. Vecino | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| M. Alonso | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| A. Febas | Missing Fixture | Ribs Injury |
| B. Iglesias | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| C. Perez | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Vecino | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| M. Alonso | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| A. Febas | Missing Fixture | Ribs Injury |
| B. Iglesias | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| C. Perez | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Vecino | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| M. Alonso | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| A. Febas | Questionable | Ribs Injury |
| B. Iglesias | Questionable | Muscle Injury |
| C. Perez | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
Málagasnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| F. Calero | Missing Fixture | Ribs Injury |
| J. Lobete | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Juanpe | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| D. Murillo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| A. Nino | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| A. Ochoa | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| F. Calero | Missing Fixture | Ribs Injury |
| J. Lobete | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Juanpe | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| D. Murillo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Diarra | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| A. Nino | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| A. Ochoa | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| F. Calero | Missing Fixture | Ribs Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Celta Vigo play Málaga?
Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 UK time in the La Liga - Spain.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 13 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.