Iceland v Estonia — UEFA Nations League prediction, odds and analysis
At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
IcelandvEstonia
Sat 26 Sept, 17:00Iceland1.36Coral
Draw4.80LiveScore Bet
Estonia11.00Coral
Best captured price per outcome · 9 bookmakers · prices observed 22 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLDDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.33 / 1.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | at Argentina (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-05-31 | at Japan (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-03-31 | at Haiti (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-03-28 | at Canada (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-02-25 | at Mexico (A) | 0-4 | L |
WWLDWL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 0.92 / 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | vs Lithuania (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-06-06 | vs Faroe Islands (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-03-30 | at Rwanda (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-03-27 | at Kenya (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2025-11-18 | at Cyprus (A) | 4-2 | W |
Competition context
A league table does not apply to a international fixture, so none is shown.
| Round | 1 |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Iceland 2 wins3 drawsEstonia 1avg 1.7 goalsBTTS 33%Over 2.5 in 17%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-08 | Iceland v Estonia | 1-1 | International |
| 2019-01-15 | Estonia v Iceland | 0-0 | International |
| 2015-03-31 | Estonia v Iceland | 1-1 | International |
| 2014-06-04 | Iceland v Estonia | 1-0 | International |
| 2002-11-20 | Estonia v Iceland | 2-0 | International |
| 1996-04-24 | Estonia v Iceland | 0-3 | International |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 14 Sept, 07:08 · model run 21 Aug, 07:07
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
Frequently asked questions
When do Iceland play Estonia?
Kick-off is Sat 26 Sept, 17:00 UK time in the UEFA Nations League.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 14 September at 08:08 UK time. · engine slate assembled 22 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.