SC Cambuur v Excelsior
1X2 · SC CambuurModel behind market recent
Market
2.50
price
40.0%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.65
fair price
37.7%
fair prob
Our model
2.20
model fair price
45.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 38%model 46%
Model divergence +7.8 pts
Edge vs fair -5.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
SC Cambuur
46%
Draw
26%
Excelsior
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 38% / 26% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.774 — 1.375
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices SC Cambuur 46% against the market’s fair 38% — a +7.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.774–1.375 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SC Cambuur 34% · Excelsior 20% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Cambuur | 45.5% | 2.65 | 2.50 | -5.7% |
| Draw | 26.0% | 3.85 | 3.70 | -3.8% |
| Excelsior | 28.6% | 2.75 | 2.75 | +0.1% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.62 · Under: 2.28 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | SC Cambuur | Draw | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 2.24 | 3.25 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.46 | 2.66 | 2.54 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Sky Bet | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| BoyleSports | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Casumo | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Grosvenor | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.75 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.53 / 3.67 / 2.62 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · SC Cambuur — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — SC CambuurFair line (devig) — SC Cambuur
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
SC Cambuur
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Excelsior
WLWLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.33 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 33% · Clean sheets: 25%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Dordrecht | 2-0 | W |
| 2024-05-19 | A v Feyenoord | 0-4 | L |
| 2024-05-12 | H v Heracles | 4-0 | W |
| 2024-05-06 | H v Nijmegen | 0-3 | L |
| 2024-04-24 | A v Ajax | 2-2 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Frequently asked questions
When do SC Cambuur play Excelsior?
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
What does the model expect for SC Cambuur v Excelsior?
The statistical model prices SC Cambuur at 46%, the draw at 26% and Excelsior at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for SC Cambuur v Excelsior?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.65 / 3.85 / 2.75 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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