Model divergence +7.8 ptsEdge vs fair -5.7%12 books priced
Model · 1X2
SC Cambuur
46%
Draw
26%
Excelsior
29%
market fair (devig · sharp): 38% / 26% / 36%
Expected goals (λ)
1.774 — 1.375
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices SC Cambuur 46% against the market’s fair 38% — a +7.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.774–1.375 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): SC Cambuur 34% · Excelsior 20% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a
decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone.
We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Kick-off is Fri 7 Aug, 19:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
What does the model expect for SC Cambuur v Excelsior?
The statistical model prices SC Cambuur at 46%, the draw at 26% and Excelsior at 29%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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