Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Accrington ST — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming6 Results held
Model Strength
68.1
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.7%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
24th
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
6
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Form
last 6LWDLLD
5 pts from 6
A
Barnet
1–2
-0.8
H
Crawley Town
3–2
+1.4
H
Grimsby
2–2
-0.6
A
Walsall
2–3
—
A
Exeter City
0–2
-1.1
H
Colchester
2–2
—
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (6 matches)
Model expected (5 priced)
Ahead
Behind
-0.1 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
1.67
#6 of 24
Weaknesses
Points over model expectation
-0.1
#18 of 24
Clean sheets
0
#20 of 24
Goals conceded
2.17
#24 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.67
#6 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
2.17
#24 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
0
#20 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed56%
Scored before half time
of 9 goals
0%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 9 goals
11%
From the penalty spot
of 9 goals
13%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 8 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures
(17 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
LTNo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Thorneyholme Road gazetteer
Recorded form
LWWDDL
last 12: 1.5 scored / 1.75 conceded per game · Over 2.5 75% · BTTS 75% · clean sheets 17% (15 results held)
A Barnet 1-2 L · H Crawley Town 3-2 W · H Crawley Town 3-2 W · H Grimsby 2-2 D · H Grimsby Town 2-2 D
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 19 Sept15:00in 7dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | I. Heath | to Everton | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| IN | I. Heath | from Everton | Loan | 2025-09-01 |
| OUT | B. Crellin | to Everton | 2025-07-01 | |
| OUT | Sonny Aljofree | to Manchester United | Return from loan | 2025-05-30 |
| IN | B. Crellin | from Everton | Loan | 2024-08-30 |
| OUT | R. Vítek | to Manchester United | 2024-07-01 | |
| IN | N. Butler-Oyedeji | from Arsenal | Loan | 2023-01-31 |
| IN | R. Astley | from Everton | Loan | 2022-07-13 |
| IN | S. Sherring | from Bournemouth | Loan | 2021-08-20 |
| IN | J. Trafford | from Manchester City | Loan | 2021-07-01 |
Team data: fresh · collected 14 min ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Accrington ST play next?
Accrington ST's next fixture in the snapshot is Accrington ST v Newport County on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 UK time (League Two).