Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Ajax — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming10 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.8%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
2nd
of 18 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
10
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
CasumoForm
last 6WWDDWW
14 pts from 6
A
Sparta Rotterdam
2–1
+1.2
A
Groningen
5–2
+0.9
H
NEC Nijmegen
1–1
-1.3
H
Excelsior
2–2
-1.7
H
Willem II
5–1
+0.4
A
Fortuna Sittard
5–1
+0.8
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (10 matches)
Model expected (10 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+1.3 points against the model's expectation over the 10 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
2.9
#2 of 18
Goals conceded
1.3
#5 of 18
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
2.9
#2 of 18
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.3
#5 of 18
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
2
#8 of 18
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed46%
Scored before half time
of 26 goals
19%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 26 goals
4%
From the penalty spot
of 26 goals
33%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 12 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures
(38 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
ERENo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Johan Cruijff ArenA gazetteer
Recorded form
WWWWLD
last 12: 2.75 scored / 1.17 conceded per game · Over 2.5 67% · BTTS 83% · clean sheets 17% (40 results held)
A Sparta Rotterdam 2-1 W · H Atalanta 2-0 W · H Atalanta BC 2-0 W · A Groningen 5-2 W · A HNK Hajduk Split 1-2 L
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 31 Oct20:00in 5dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Y. Bissouma | from Tottenham | Free agent | 2026-09-15 |
| IN | S. Adingra | from Sunderland | Loan | 2026-09-01 |
| IN | Jofre Torrents | from Barcelona | Free agent | 2026-08-16 |
| IN | Jofre Torrents | from Barcelona | Free agent | 2026-08-15 |
| OUT | T. Tomiyasu | to Crystal Palace | Free agent | 2026-08-06 |
| OUT | T. Tomiyasu | to Crystal Palace | Free agent | 2026-08-05 |
| IN | M. ter Stegen | from Barcelona | Loan | 2026-08-03 |
| OUT | Sean Steur | to Newcastle | Transfer | 2026-07-08 |
| OUT | Sean Steur | to Newcastle | Transfer | 2026-07-07 |
| OUT | C. Akpom | to Ipswich | Transfer | 2026-06-30 |
Team data: fresh · collected 20 min ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Ajax play next?
Ajax's next fixture in the snapshot is Ajax v AZ Alkmaar on Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 UK time (Dutch Eredivisie).