A

Ajax

Dutch Eredivisie·Johan Cruijff ArenA

Next match Fortuna Sittard v Ajax Sat 12 Sept, 19:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Ajax — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming4 Results held

Model Strength

Not enough data

the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.6%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

9th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

4

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Sat 12 Sept19:00 Fortuna Sittard A — 1.48Betfair Exchange — Tue 15 Sept19:00 Willem II H — 1.20Coral — Sat 19 Sept19:00 Excelsior H — 1.36888sport —

Form

last 4

LWDW 7 pts from 4

H PSV Eindhoven 1–3 -1.3

A Telstar 4–0 +1.9

H Heerenveen 2–2 -1.5

A PEC Zwolle 2–0 +1.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (4 priced) Ahead Behind

+1.0 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Clean sheets 2 #3 of 18

Goals conceded 1.25 #5 of 18

Goals scored 2.25 #6 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2.25 #6 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.25 #5 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #3 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

40%

Scored before half time

of 5 goals

20%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 5 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 5 goals

33%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 3 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (8 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

ERE Dutch Eredivisie 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept19:00in 23h 24m
   Fortuna Sittard Ajax

   ERE

   Regular Season - 6
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Tue 15 Sept19:00in 4d
   Ajax Willem II

   ERE

   Regular Season - 3
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sat 19 Sept19:00in 8d
   Ajax Excelsior

   ERE

   Regular Season - 7
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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