Ajax v AZ Alkmaar — Dutch Eredivisie prediction, odds and analysis
ERE·Regular Season - 11·Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 UK·Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam· 9.5°C · 3.7 kph wind · 0.1 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
AjaxvAZ Alkmaar
Sat 31 Oct, 20:00Ajax1.92Casumo
Draw4.30Betfair
AZ Alkmaar3.60Betano (UK)
Best captured price per outcome · 19 bookmakers · prices observed 16 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, AmsterdamKickoff weather: 9.5°C · rain 0.1 mm · wind 3.7 kph
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWWWLD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.75 / 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | at Sparta Rotterdam (A) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-22 | vs Atalanta (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-22 | vs Atalanta BC (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | at Groningen (A) | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-10-15 | at HNK Hajduk Split (A) | 1-2 | L |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bouwman Defender |
5 | 457 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 7.2 |
 Y. Regeer Midfielder |
5 | 412 | 0 | 1 | 1Y | 7.3 |
 M. Paes Goalkeeper |
4 | 367 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 D. Blind Defender |
4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.7 |
 S. Berghuis Attacker |
4 | 307 | 1 | 3 | — | 7.7 |
LLWDWL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.67 / 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | vs Twente (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-25 | vs FC Twente Enschede (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-22 | at Ararat-Armenia (A) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | at Cambuur (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-10-15 | vs Hapoel Beer Sheva (H) | 2-1 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. De Busser Goalkeeper |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.2 |
 L. Schouten Defender |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 W. Goes Defender |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.3 |
 E. Dijkstra Defender |
3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.4 |
 P. Koopmeiners Midfielder |
3 | 265 | 1 | 0 | — | 7.8 |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Ajax 0 wins2 drawsAZ Alkmaar 4avg 2.5 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | Ajax v AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2024-12-08 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| 2024-02-25 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| 2023-10-08 | Ajax v AZ Alkmaar | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2023-05-06 | Ajax v AZ Alkmaar | 0-0 | Eredivisie |
| 2022-09-18 | AZ Alkmaar v Ajax | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 20 Oct, 07:20
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Dutch Eredivisie fixtures
Feyenoord v Fortuna SittardPSV Eindhoven v Willem IIHeerenveen v NEC NijmegenSC Cambuur v Go Ahead EaglesFC Zwolle v ADO Den HaagExcelsior v FC Twente Enschede
Frequently asked questions
When do Ajax play AZ Alkmaar?
Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.