AA

AZ Alkmaar

Dutch Eredivisie·AFAS Stadion

Next match Sunderland v AZ Alkmaar Wed 16 Sept, 20:00

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for AZ Alkmaar — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming5 Results held

Model Strength

67.9

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

2nd

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

5

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Fri 11 Sept19:00 Willem II H — 1.18Betfair Exchange — Wed 16 Sept20:00 Sunderland A — 4.70Grosvenor — Sun 20 Sept13:30 SC Telstar H — 1.27Unibet —

Form

last 5

WWWWW 15 pts from 5

A Heerenveen 3–2 +1.2

H GO Ahead Eagles 5–2 +0.9

A Fortuna Sittard 2–0 +1.0

A Utrecht 4–1 +1.5

H ADO Den Haag 2–0 +1.4

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (5 matches) Model expected (5 priced) Ahead Behind

+5.9 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Points over model expectation 5.9 #1 of 18

Goals scored 3.2 #2 of 18

Goals conceded 1 #2 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #2 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 3.2 #2 of 18

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #2 of 18

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #2 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

38%

Scored before half time

of 8 goals

25%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 8 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 8 goals

25%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 4 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures (12 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 16 Sept20:00in 5d
   Sunderland AZ Alkmaar

   UEL

   League Stage - 1
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 20 Sept13:30in 9d
   AZ Alkmaar SC Telstar

   ERE

   Regular Season - 7
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 6 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

Explore