SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Alverca
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Alverca

Primeira Liga - Portugal
Next match Nacional v Alverca Sat 12 Sept, 15:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Alverca — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming5 Results held
Model Strength
66
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.7%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
9th
of 15 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
5
Held

Next fixtures

1 priced
Sat 12 Sept15:30 Nacional crest Nacional A — 2.78Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 5
LDLDL 2 pts from 5
H SC Braga 1–2 -1.6
H Santa Clara 1–1 —
A Sporting CP 1–3 -1.0
H Estrela 2–2 -0.6
A FC Porto 0–2 -0.3
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (5 matches) Model expected (5 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 5 matches 0 2 4
-2.4 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Weaknesses
Goals conceded 2 #15 of 18
Points over model expectation -2.4 #14 of 15
Clean sheets 0 #18 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 1 #11 of 18
Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 2 #15 of 18
Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets 0 #18 of 18

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
50%
Scored before half time
of 2 goals
0%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 2 goals
50%
From the penalty spot
of 2 goals
33%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 3 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures (5 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
PRI Primeira Liga - Portugal 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table
No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Recorded form LLDLLD last 12: 1.17 scored / 1.58 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 67% · clean sheets 17% (40 results held)
H SC Braga 1-2 L · H Sporting Clube de Braga 1-2 L · H Santa Clara 1-1 D · A Sporting Clube de Portugal 1-3 L · A Sporting CP 1-3 L

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Sat 12 Sept15:30in 19h 23m
    Nacional crestNacional Alverca crestAlverca
    PRI
    Regular Season - 6
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Transfers (last 3 recorded)

PlayerClubTypeDate
IN Matheus França from Crystal Palace Loan 2026-09-03
IN M. Jemide from Crystal Palace Transfer 2026-08-19
IN M. Jemide from Crystal Palace Transfer 2026-08-18
Team data: fresh · collected 37 min ago

Explore

Primeira Liga - Portugal Next: Nacional v Alverca Search Alverca matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Alverca play next?
Alverca's next fixture in the snapshot is Nacional v Alverca on Sat 12 Sept, 15:30 UK time (Primeira Liga - Portugal).