Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Colchester — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming5 Results held
Model Strength
54.8
Developing
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
97.5%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
21st
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
5
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Form
last 5LLWWD
7 pts from 5
A
Swindon Town
1–3
-1.1
A
Bristol Rovers
0–2
-1.1
H
Rochdale
1–0
—
H
Oldham
2–1
+1.4
A
Accrington ST
2–2
—
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (5 matches)
Model expected (4 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+3.2 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionNothing ranks yet
a strength is a rank against the rest of the competition, and this club's stored
fixtures do not yet support one on any quantity
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.2
#12 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.6
#16 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
1
#13 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed50%
Scored before half time
of 2 goals
50%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 2 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 2 goals
50%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 6 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures
(8 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
LTNo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Recorded form
LLLLWW
last 12: 0.75 scored / 1.83 conceded per game · Over 2.5 42% · BTTS 42% · clean sheets 8% (16 results held)
A Swindon Town 1-3 L · A Swindon Town 1-3 L · A Bristol Rovers 0-2 L · A Bristol Rovers 0-2 L · H Rochdale 1-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 19 Sept15:00in 7dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | Harvey Araujo | to Fulham | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| IN | A. Faux | from Fulham | Free agent | 2026-02-01 |
| IN | Harvey Araujo | from Fulham | Loan | 2025-08-28 |
| IN | O. Goodman | from Crystal Palace | Loan | 2023-07-15 |
| OUT | M. Longstaff | to Newcastle | 2023-01-09 | |
| IN | M. Longstaff | from Newcastle | Loan | 2022-09-01 |
| OUT | S. Jasper | to Fulham | 2022-01-16 | |
| IN | S. Jasper | from Fulham | Loan | 2021-08-04 |
| IN | M. Taylor-Crossdale | from Fulham | Loan | 2020-09-04 |
| IN | C. Bramall | from Arsenal | Free | 2019-08-02 |
Team data: fresh · collected just now
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Colchester play next?
Colchester's next fixture in the snapshot is Colchester v Cheltenham on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 UK time (League Two).