Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Derry City — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming35 Results held
Model Strength
58.8
Developing
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
95.1%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
6th
of 10 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
35
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
William HillForm
last 6WWLWDW
13 pts from 6
H
Dundalk
2–1
+1.7
H
St Patrick's Athl.
1–0
+1.5
A
Drogheda United
0–2
-1.6
H
Galway United
1–0
+1.1
A
Waterford
2–2
-0.5
A
Shelbourne
1–0
+1.6
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (35 matches)
Model expected (10 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+33.7 points against the model's expectation over the 10 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals conceded
1.29
#4 of 10
Clean sheets
10
#4 of 10
Weaknesses
Goals scored
1.37
#7 of 10
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.37
#7 of 10
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.29
#4 of 10
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
10
#4 of 10
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed60%
Scored before half time
of 10 goals
10%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 10 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 10 goals
38%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 8 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 35 stored fixtures
(18 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
LOINo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Home ground: Brandywell Stadium gazetteer
Recorded form
WWWLWW
last 12: 1.75 scored / 1.25 conceded per game · Over 2.5 42% · BTTS 42% · clean sheets 50% (40 results held)
H Dundalk 2-1 W · H St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 W · H St Patricks Athletic 1-0 W · A Drogheda United 0-2 L · A Galway United 2-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Fri 30 Oct19:45in 4dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 8 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | B. Fleming | from Hull City | Free Transfer | 2025-07-17 |
| IN | M. Ward | from Ipswich | Loan | 2023-02-10 |
| IN | O. O'Neill | from Fulham | 2023-02-06 | |
| IN | Thomas McDermott | from Tottenham | Free | 2017-08-01 |
| IN | B. McLaughlin | from Everton | Free | 2015-08-31 |
| IN | C. Burke | from Ipswich | 2014-04-01 | |
| OUT | S. McLaughlin | to Nottingham Forest | 2013-01-03 | |
| OUT | J. McClean | to Sunderland | € 400K | 2011-08-09 |
Team data: fresh · collected 16 h ago
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Frequently asked questions
When do Derry City play next?
Derry City's next fixture in the snapshot is Sligo Rovers v Derry City on Fri 30 Oct, 19:45 UK time (League of Ireland).