SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Estoril
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Estoril

Primeira Liga - Portugal
Next match Braga v Estoril Mon 14 Sept, 20:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Estoril — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming5 Results held
Model Strength
63
Developing
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.6%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
8th
of 15 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
5
Held

Next fixtures

1 priced
Mon 14 Sept20:45 Braga crest Braga A — 7.00Betfair —

Form

last 5
DLLLD 2 pts from 5
H Arouca 0–0 -0.6
A Benfica 1–2 —
H Rio Ave 0–2 -1.5
A Nacional 0–2 —
H Famalicao 1–1 -0.6
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (5 matches) Model expected (5 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 5 matches 0 2 5
-2.6 points against the model's expectation over the 5 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Weaknesses
Goals scored 0.4 #16 of 18
Points over model expectation -2.6 #15 of 15

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 0.4 #16 of 18
Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 1.4 #10 of 18
Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets 1 #9 of 18

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
0%
Scored before half time
of 1 goals
100%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 1 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 1 goals
0%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 2 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures (3 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
PRI Primeira Liga - Portugal 1 fixture on the snapshot · full table
No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Recorded form DLLLDD last 12: 0.67 scored / 1.11 conceded per game · Over 2.5 22% · BTTS 33% · clean sheets 33% (9 results held)
H Arouca 0-0 D · A Benfica 1-2 L · H Rio Ave 0-2 L · A Nacional 0-2 L · H Famalicao 1-1 D

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Mon 14 Sept20:45in 3d
    Braga crestBraga Estoril crestEstoril
    PRI
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Transfers (last 3 recorded)

PlayerClubTypeDate
IN K. Edwards from Arsenal Free agent 2025-12-04
IN K. Edwards from Arsenal Free agent 2025-06-30
IN R. Meshino from Manchester City Loan 2021-08-02
Team data: fresh · collected 3 h ago

Explore

Primeira Liga - Portugal Next: Braga v Estoril Search Estoril matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Estoril play next?
Estoril's next fixture in the snapshot is Braga v Estoril on Mon 14 Sept, 20:45 UK time (Primeira Liga - Portugal).