SHARPFOOTYData · Models · Insight Italy
Join free channel

Italy

UEFA Nations League
Next match Italy v France Thu 12 Nov, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Italy — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

1 Upcoming4 Results held
Model Strength
70
Strong
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.7%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
23rd
of 52 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
4
Held

Next fixtures

1 priced
Thu 12 Nov19:45 France crest France H — 3.95Betfair Exchange —

Form

last 4
WDWL 7 pts from 4
H Türkiye 3–1 +1.5
A France 1–1 -0.2
A Türkiye 4–1 +1.9
H Belgium 0–2 -1.6
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected
Points taken (4 matches) Model expected (4 priced) Ahead Behind
Points taken against model expected points over 4 matches 0 4 7
+1.6 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition
Strengths
Goals scored 2 #8 of 54
Weaknesses
Clean sheets 0 #44 of 54

Attack

per game, with rank
Goals scored 2 #8 of 54
Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank
Goals conceded 1.25 #33 of 54
Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets 0 #44 of 54

Best model edges

on this club
No priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed
50%
Scored before half time
of 8 goals
13%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 8 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 8 goals
0%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 5 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures (13 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club
Not enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
UNL UEFA Nations League 1 fixture on the snapshot · competition page
No league table for this tie UEFA Nations League is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Recorded form WDWLWW last 12: 1.83 scored / 0.92 conceded per game · Over 2.5 42% · BTTS 50% · clean sheets 42% (40 results held)
H Türkiye 3-1 W · A France 1-1 D · A Türkiye 4-1 W · H Belgium 0-2 L · A Greece 1-0 W

Upcoming fixtures

  1. Thu 12 Nov19:45in 13d
    Italy crestItaly France crestFrance
    UNL
    League A - 5
    not modelled
    model building
    —

Explore

UEFA Nations League Next: Italy v France Search Italy matches Opportunity board

Frequently asked questions

When do Italy play next?
Italy's next fixture in the snapshot is Italy v France on Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UK time (UEFA Nations League).