Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Luton — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming6 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 2 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
95.6%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
2nd
of 24 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
6
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Form
last 6LDWLDW
8 pts from 6
A
Stevenage
1–2
-1.1
H
Leyton Orient
1–1
-0.6
H
Stockport County
2–0
+1.4
A
Mansfield Town
2–5
—
H
Notts County
2–2
-0.6
A
Reading
4–3
+2.0
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (6 matches)
Model expected (6 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+1.1 points against the model's expectation over the 6 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
2
#5 of 24
Clean sheets
1
#8 of 24
Weaknesses
Goals conceded
2.17
#20 of 24
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
2
#5 of 24
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
2.17
#20 of 24
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
1
#8 of 24
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed17%
Scored before half time
of 6 goals
67%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 6 goals
17%
From the penalty spot
of 6 goals
0%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 8 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 6 stored fixtures
(14 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
LONo stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.
Recorded form
LDWLLD
last 12: 2 scored / 1.5 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 50% · clean sheets 33% (40 results held)
A Stevenage 1-2 L · H Leyton Orient 1-1 D · H Stockport County 2-0 W · A Mansfield Town 2-5 L · A Chelsea 0-2 L
Upcoming fixtures
-
Sat 19 Sept15:00in 7dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Daniel Gore | from Manchester United | Loan | 2026-08-29 |
| IN | J. Donley | from Tottenham | Loan | 2026-08-28 |
| IN | Emilio Lawrence | from Manchester City | Loan | 2026-08-13 |
| IN | H. Ashby | from Newcastle | Loan | 2026-07-08 |
| OUT | Emilio Lawrence | to Manchester City | Return from loan | 2026-06-29 |
| OUT | Emilio Lawrence | to Manchester City | Return from loan | 2026-05-30 |
| IN | Emilio Lawrence | from Manchester City | Loan | 2026-01-08 |
| IN | Joshua Keeley | from Tottenham | Transfer | 2025-07-18 |
| IN | R. Walters | from Arsenal | Free | 2024-07-11 |
| OUT | A. Sambi Lokonga | to Arsenal | 2024-07-01 |
Team data: fresh · collected 11 min ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Luton play next?
Luton's next fixture in the snapshot is Luton v Bradford on Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 UK time (League One).