M

Motherwell

Premiership - Scotland·Fir Park

Next match St Johnstone v Motherwell Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Motherwell — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming10 Results held

Model Strength

57.4

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

96.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

5th

of 12 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

10

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 St Johnstone A — 2.85Virgin Bet — Sat 31 Oct15:00 St Mirren H — 1.80LeoVegas —

Form

last 6

LLLLLL 0 pts from 6

H Heart Of Midlothian 0–2 -1.9

A Kilmarnock 2–3 -1.0

H Celtic 0–2 -1.5

A Dundee 1–2 -1.1

H Aberdeen 0–4 -1.5

A Rangers 0–1 -1.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (10 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

-1.7 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 2 #9 of 12

Goals scored 1.1 #10 of 12

Goals conceded 1.8 #11 of 12

Points over model expectation -1.7 #11 of 12

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.1 #10 of 12

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.8 #11 of 12

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 2 #9 of 12

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

60%

Scored before half time

of 10 goals

10%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 10 goals

10%

From the penalty spot

of 10 goals

17%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 18 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 10 stored fixtures (28 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

PS Premiership - Scotland 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 41h 56m
   St Johnstone Motherwell

   PS

   Regular Season - 11
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct15:00in 5d
   Motherwell St Mirren

   PS

   Regular Season - 12
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

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