Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Motherwell — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming5 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 2 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
97.6%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
Not enough data
this club has no priced fixtures in the stored competition
Fixtures Analysed
5
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
Virgin BetForm
last 5LWDDW
8 pts from 5
A
Rangers
0–1
-1.1
H
Dundee Utd
3–0
+1.4
A
ST Mirren
3–3
—
H
Falkirk
0–0
—
A
Hibernian
2–1
—
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (5 matches)
Model expected (2 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+5.3 points against the model's expectation over the 2 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
1.6
#3 of 12
Clean sheets
2
#4 of 12
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
1.6
#3 of 12
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1
#5 of 12
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
2
#4 of 12
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed57%
Scored before half time
of 7 goals
14%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 7 goals
14%
From the penalty spot
of 7 goals
0%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 5 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 5 stored fixtures
(12 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
PS
No league table for this tie
Premiership - Scotland is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely
Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Home ground: Fir Park gazetteer
Recorded form
LWWDLL
last 12: 1.58 scored / 1.17 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 42% · clean sheets 42% (15 results held)
A Rangers 0-1 L · H Dundee Utd 3-0 W · H Dundee United 3-0 W · A ST Mirren 3-3 D · A SC Freiburg 1-4 L
Upcoming fixtures
-
Tue 15 Sept19:45in 4dnot modelledmodel building—
Transfers (last 10 recorded)
| Player | Club | Type | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | A. Paulsen | from Bournemouth | Loan | 2026-07-12 |
| OUT | L. Plange | to Crystal Palace | 2025-07-01 | |
| OUT | L. Plange | to Crystal Palace | Return from loan | 2025-06-29 |
| IN | L. Plange | from Crystal Palace | Loan | 2025-02-01 |
| IN | M. Biereth | from Arsenal | Loan | 2023-08-03 |
| IN | J. Furlong | from Brighton | Loan | 2023-01-31 |
| IN | J. Archer | from Fulham | Free | 2020-10-28 |
| OUT | M. Gillespie | to Newcastle | Free | 2020-07-27 |
| OUT | R. Aarons | to Newcastle | 2020-07-01 | |
| OUT | M. Ndjoli | to Bournemouth | 2020-06-01 |
Team data: fresh · collected 3 h ago
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Motherwell play next?
Motherwell's next fixture in the snapshot is Motherwell v Aberdeen on Tue 15 Sept, 19:45 UK time (Premiership - Scotland).