S

Santos

Brazil Série A·Estádio Urbano Caldeira (Vila Belmiro)

Next match Santos v Palmeiras Wed 28 Oct, 22:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Santos — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming32 Results held

Model Strength

67.9

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

95.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

15th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

32

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Wed 28 Oct22:30 Palmeiras H — 2.96Matchbook — Mon 2 Nov23:00 Bragantino-SP A — 3.75Coral —

Form

last 6

DWLDWW 11 pts from 6

H Bahia 1–1 -0.8

A Fluminense 2–1 +2.0

A Atletico-MG 1–2 -0.9

H Flamengo 2–2 -0.4

A Sao Paulo 2–1 +2.1

A Remo 2–1 +1.6

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (32 matches) Model expected (12 priced) Ahead Behind

+30.6 points against the model's expectation over the 12 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals scored 1.53 #6 of 20

Points over model expectation 30.6 #7 of 20

Weaknesses

Goals conceded 1.47 #16 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.53 #6 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.47 #16 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 6 #13 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

38%

Scored before half time

of 16 goals

38%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 16 goals

19%

From the penalty spot

of 16 goals

38%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 13 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 32 stored fixtures (29 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BSA Brazil Série A 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct22:30in 40h 17m
   Santos Palmeiras

   BSA

   Regular Season - 33
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Mon 2 Nov23:00in 7d
   Bragantino-SP Santos

   BSA

   Regular Season - 34
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

Explore