SP

Sao Paulo

Brazil Série A·Estádio do Morumbi

Next match Palmeiras v Sao Paulo Sat 12 Sept, 22:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Sao Paulo — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming25 Results held

Model Strength

60.5

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

95.8%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

6th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

25

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Sat 12 Sept22:30 Palmeiras A — 5.70Matchbook — Wed 16 Sept01:30 Boca Juniors H — 2.32Betfair Exchange — Sun 20 Sept01:00 Internacional H — 2.04Grosvenor —

Form

last 6

WWLDLD 8 pts from 6

H Atletico-MG 2–0 +1.3

H RB Bragantino 2–1 +1.2

A Chapecoense-sc 0–1 -1.4

H Coritiba 1–1 -1.0

A Gremio 1–2 -1.0

A Flamengo 1–1 +0.0

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (25 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

+22.3 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals conceded 1.12 #6 of 20

Weaknesses

Clean sheets 5 #15 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.24 #12 of 20

Expected goals not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

On target not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.12 #6 of 20

Expected against not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Shots faced not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures

Clean sheets 5 #15 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

60%

Scored before half time

of 5 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 5 goals

20%

From the penalty spot

of 5 goals

50%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 2 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 25 stored fixtures (7 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

Upcoming fixtures

1. Sat 12 Sept22:30in 25h 39m
   Palmeiras Sao Paulo

   BSA

   Regular Season - 27
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Wed 16 Sept01:30in 4d
   Sao Paulo Boca Juniors

   CS

   Quarter-finals
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sun 20 Sept01:00in 8d
   Sao Paulo Internacional

   BSA

   Regular Season - 28
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 9 recorded)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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