Bahia v Sao Paulo — Brazil Série A prediction, odds and analysis
BSA·Regular Season - 33·Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 UK·Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador· 25.1°C · 14.2 kph wind · 0.4 mm rainAt a glance
Model edge
Members
free account
Fair price
Members
free account
Model prob
Members
free account
Reliability
—
qualification
BahiavSao Paulo
Thu 29 Oct, 00:30Bahia2.05LeoVegas
Draw3.70Coral
Sao Paulo3.70Matchbook
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 16 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Arena Fonte Nova, SalvadorKickoff weather: 25.1°C · rain 0.4 mm · wind 14.2 kph
The full model view — probabilities, expected goals and the engine score needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Pricing board
The market pricing board needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Recorded price movement
Recorded price movement needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
DLWLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.58 / 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | at Santos (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-10-18 | vs Flamengo (H) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-11 | vs Mirassol (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-10-09 | at Palmeiras (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-20 | at Atletico Paranaense (A) | 1-2 | L |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ronaldo Goalkeeper |
2 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.7 |
 David Duarte Defender |
2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.9 |
 Luciano Juba Defender |
2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 2Y | 6.5 |
 Léo Vieira Goalkeeper |
2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.0 |
 N. Acevedo Midfielder |
2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.8 |
DWWLLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.08 / 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | at Mirassol (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-10-18 | vs Vasco DA Gama (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-10-11 | vs Vitoria (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-08 | at Cruzeiro (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-02 | vs Santos (H) | 1-2 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 7 | 50 | 32 | +5 | |
| Sao Paulo | 9 | 43 | 32 | +1 |
Bahia: 19 pts behind 1st · 29 pts above 20th
Sao Paulo: 26 pts behind 1st · 22 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · football-data.org · updated 2026-10-26.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Bahia 2 wins2 drawsSao Paulo 2avg 3.2 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 83%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | São Paulo FC v EC Bahia | 2-2 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A |
| 2026-05-03 | Sao Paulo v Bahia | 2-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | São Paulo FC v EC Bahia | 2-0 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A |
| 2025-05-31 | EC Bahia v São Paulo FC | 2-1 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A |
| 2025-05-31 | Bahia v Sao Paulo | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-11-06 | Bahia v Sao Paulo | 0-3 | Brazil Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
The signal ledger needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Grounded team-news brief
The grounded team-news brief needs a free account
one email address, no card and no trial clock
Fixture times, states and results stay open to everyone.
Create a free account
Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 19 Oct, 07:03
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Coritiba v GrêmioFlamengo v Atletico MineiroBragantino-SP v ChapecoenseFluminense v InternacionalSantos v PalmeirasRemo v Botafogo
Frequently asked questions
When do Bahia play Sao Paulo?
Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
A free account unlocks:
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Create a free account
See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.