Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Spain — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.
1 Upcoming4 Results held
Model Strength
Not enough data
the model has priced 0 of this club's fixtures; 3 are needed
Avg. Model Edge
Not enough data
0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price
Market Efficiency
96.3%
Very Efficient
ROI · published
Not enough data
0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed
Model Rank
20th
of 52 ranked
Fixtures Analysed
4
Held
Next fixtures
1 priced
CoralForm
last 4WWWW
12 pts from 4
A
Croatia
2–1
+1.8
H
Czechia
3–1
+1.5
H
Croatia
4–1
+1.4
A
England
3–2
+1.9
The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture.
A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.
Model performance
points vs expected
Points taken (4 matches)
Model expected (4 priced)
Ahead
Behind
+6.6 points against the model's expectation over the 4 fixtures it priced
Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw)
under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is
what the club took against what the model priced.
Strengths & weaknesses
ranked in competitionStrengths
Goals scored
3
#2 of 54
Points over model expectation
6.6
#3 of 52
Weaknesses
Goals conceded
1.25
#37 of 54
Clean sheets
0
#49 of 54
Attack
per game, with rankGoals scored
3
#2 of 54
Expected goals
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
On target
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Defence
per game, with rankGoals conceded
1.25
#37 of 54
Expected against
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Shots faced
not stored for enough of this club’s fixtures
Clean sheets
0
#49 of 54
Best model edges
on this clubNo priced edge on this club
an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no
fixture for this club on the board carries both
How the goals arrive
from the event feed42%
Scored before half time
of 12 goals
25%
Scored from 75 minutes
of 12 goals
0%
From the penalty spot
of 12 goals
0%
Conceded from 75 minutes
of 6 conceded
From the provider's own goal events across 4 stored fixtures
(18 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece,
and neither does this panel.
Model vs market
this clubNot enough priced fixtures
the model priced 0 fixture(s) here
No league table for this tie
UEFA Nations League is a knockout competition, so a league position would belong to a different competition entirely
Recent form and the head-to-head record are shown instead.
Recorded form
WWWWWW
last 12: 2.17 scored / 0.5 conceded per game · Over 2.5 58% · BTTS 42% · clean sheets 58% (40 results held)
A Croatia 2-1 W · H Czechia 3-1 W · H Croatia 4-1 W · A England 3-2 W · H Argentina 1-0 W
Upcoming fixtures
-
Thu 12 Nov19:45in 13dnot modelledmodel building—
Explore
Frequently asked questions
When do Spain play next?
Spain's next fixture in the snapshot is Czech Republic v Spain on Thu 12 Nov, 19:45 UK time (UEFA Nations League).