UB

Union Berlin

Bundesliga - Germany·Alte Försterei

Next match 1. FC Köln v Union Berlin Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Union Berlin — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming7 Results held

Model Strength

63.9

Developing

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.3%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

16th

of 18 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

7

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Tue 27 Oct19:45 1. FC Köln A — 3.95Grosvenor — Sun 1 Nov14:30 1. FC Köln H — 2.63Casumo —

Form

last 6

DDWLLL 5 pts from 6

A FC Augsburg 1–1 -0.1

H Borussia Dortmund 0–0 0.0

H SV Elversberg 1–0 +1.3

A Bayern München 0–7 -0.3

H FC Schalke 04 1–3 -1.4

A Bayer Leverkusen 0–4 -0.6

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (7 matches) Model expected (7 priced) Ahead Behind

-1.8 points against the model's expectation over the 7 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 1.2 #4 of 18

Weaknesses

Expected goals for 1.24 #15 of 18

Shots 12 #15 of 18

Shots on target 4 #15 of 18

Points over model expectation -1.8 #15 of 18

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.86 #17 of 18

Expected goals 1.24 #15 of 18

Shots 12 #15 of 18

On target 4 #15 of 18

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2.57 #17 of 18

Expected against 1.2 #4 of 18

Shots faced 17 #12 of 18

Clean sheets 2 #9 of 18

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

17%

Scored before half time

of 6 goals

67%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 6 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 6 goals

11%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 18 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 7 stored fixtures (24 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

BUN Bundesliga - Germany 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

No stored league table row for this club yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Tue 27 Oct19:45in 20h 01m
   1. FC Köln Union Berlin

   DP

   Round of 32
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 1 Nov14:30in 6d
   Union Berlin 1. FC Köln

   BUN

   Regular Season - 8
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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