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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only EFL Cup (14 fixtures)
· clear filter
EFL CupFri 7 Aug, 19:45
BC Bristol City v Walsall W
+20.9%
edge vs fair
26%
model probability
1X2 — Walsall · best 8.20
strong value
EFL CupFri 7 Aug, 19:45
WW Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale PV
+6.9%
edge vs fair
26%
model probability
1X2 — Port Vale · best 9.00
strong value
EFL CupSat 1 Aug, 15:00
TR Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale R
+5.5%
edge vs fair
25%
model probability
1X2 — Rochdale · best 2.80
strong value
Match intelligence
Bristol City v Walsall
EFL Cup · Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Bristol City
45%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
1.54
fair odds
1.42
best price
-7.8%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.508 — 1.1
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 20 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 20 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 45.0% | 1.54 | 1.42 | -7.8% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 4.90 | 5.40 | +10.2% |
| Walsall | 26.1% | 6.80 | 8.20 | +20.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.67 · Under: 2.32 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.43 / 4.55 / 6.29 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Bristol City
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Walsall
D
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 0
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 100%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Leamington | 0-0 | D |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 14 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale
EFL Cup |
Sat 1 Aug, 15:00 | Tranmere Rovers 47% | 2.77 / 3.82 / 2.65
sharp, devigged |
2.64 / 3.60 / 2.80 | +5.5% Rochdale |
— | |
| York City v Crawley Town
EFL Cup |
Mon 3 Aug, 19:30 | York City 47% | 1.77 / 4.15 / 5.15
sharp, devigged |
1.77 / 3.80 / 5.00 | 0% York City |
— | |
| Bristol City v Walsall
EFL Cup |
Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | Bristol City 45% | 1.54 / 4.90 / 6.80
sharp, devigged |
1.42 / 5.40 / 8.20 | +20.9% Walsall |
— | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale
EFL Cup |
Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | Wolverhampton Wanderers 45% | 1.43 / 5.43 / 8.40
sharp, devigged |
1.35 / 5.40 / 9.00 | +6.9% Port Vale |
— | |
| Wycombe Wanderers v Stevenage
EFL Cup |
Fri 7 Aug, 19:45 | Wycombe Wanderers 45% | 2.30 / 3.62 / 3.45
sharp, devigged |
2.20 / 3.40 / 3.40 | -1.5% Stevenage |
— | |
| Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC
EFL Cup |
Fri 7 Aug, 20:00 | Middlesbrough 45% | 1.90 / 4.05 / 4.44
sharp, devigged |
1.97 / 3.80 / 4.33 | +3.8% Middlesbrough |
— | |
| Cambridge United v Barnet
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 13:00 | Cambridge United 47% | 1.98 / 3.68 / 4.48
sharp, devigged |
1.90 / 3.60 / 4.20 | -2.2% Draw |
— | |
| Queens Park Rangers v Millwall
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 14:00 | Queens Park Rangers 47% | 3.51 / 3.45 / 2.36
sharp, devigged |
3.30 / 3.45 / 2.25 | +0.2% Draw |
— | |
| Crewe Alexandra v Accrington Stanley
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | Crewe Alexandra 47% | 1.93 / 3.89 / 4.46
sharp, devigged |
1.85 / 3.70 / 4.10 | -4% Crewe Alexandra |
— | |
| Barnsley v Wigan Athletic
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | Barnsley 47% | 2.58 / 3.58 / 3.00
sharp, devigged |
2.45 / 3.40 / 3.05 | +1.6% Wigan Athletic |
— | |
| Swansea City v Birmingham City
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | Swansea City 47% | 3.29 / 3.41 / 2.48
sharp, devigged |
3.00 / 3.40 / 2.30 | -0.5% Draw |
— | |
| Burton Albion v Blackburn Rovers
EFL Cup |
Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 | Burton Albion 47% | 3.22 / 3.56 / 2.45
sharp, devigged |
3.20 / 3.30 / 2.32 | -0.5% Burton Albion |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Walsall Bristol City v Walsall |
8.20 | 6.80 | +20.9% | strong |
| 1X2 · Port Vale Wolverhampton Wanderers v Port Vale |
9.00 | 8.40 | +6.9% | strong |
| 1X2 · Rochdale Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale |
2.80 | 2.65 | +5.5% | strong |
| 1X2 · Middlesbrough Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC |
1.97 | 1.90 | +3.8% | value |
| 1X2 · Wigan Athletic Barnsley v Wigan Athletic |
3.05 | 3.00 | +1.6% | value |
| 1X2 · Draw Queens Park Rangers v Millwall |
3.45 | 3.45 | +0.2% | value |
| 1X2 · York City York City v Crawley Town |
1.77 | 1.77 | 0% | — |
| Over 2.5 Bristol City v Walsall · consensus devig |
1.67 | 1.72 | -2.9% | totals |
| Under 2.5 Bristol City v Walsall · consensus devig |
2.32 | 2.39 | -2.9% | totals |
Odds movement
1X2 · Bristol City — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Bristol CityFair line (devig) — Bristol City
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
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A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
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Grounded AI briefs explain the numbers and flag risks. Models never invent a price or a probability — the statistical engine and the market own the numbers.
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Every prediction is timestamped and graded against the closing line. Wins and losses stay on the page.
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