AZ Alkmaar v Willem II — Dutch Eredivisie prediction, odds and analysis
ERE·Regular Season - 6·Fri 11 Sept, 19:00 UK·AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar· 17.5°C · 7.6 kph wind·M. van den KerkhofAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
AZ Alkmaar1–0Willem II
Live 34′AZ Alkmaar1.18Betfair
Draw9.60Betfair
Willem II19.00Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: AFAS Stadion, AlkmaarReferee: M. van den KerkhofKickoff weather: 17.5°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7.6 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
Built from the 2 goals,
cards and substitutions held for this fixture.
Above the line is AZ Alkmaar. Per-minute shot and possession data is not held, so this is the flow of
recorded events rather than a shot-pressure model.
Timeline and match statistics
Timeline · 1H · HT 1–0
Eredivisie · Regular Season - 6
- 29' Yellow Card — Foul Tonny Vilhena
- 32' Normal Goal Jordy Clasie
AZ Alkmaar above the axis, Willem II below — as recorded by the match feed, never inferred.
Form and league position
WWWWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.75 / 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | at Heerenveen (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) | 5-2 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | at Fortuna Sittard (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-15 | at Utrecht (A) | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-08-08 | vs ADO Den Haag (H) | 2-0 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 J. De Busser Goalkeeper |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.2 |
 L. Schouten Defender |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 W. Goes Defender |
3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.3 |
 E. Dijkstra Defender |
3 | 266 | 0 | 0 | — | 6.4 |
 P. Koopmeiners Midfielder |
3 | 265 | 1 | 0 | — | 7.8 |
LLDDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.17 / 2.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | vs Excelsior (H) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | vs SBV Excelsior (H) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Heerenveen (H) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs SC Heerenveen (H) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-15 | vs NEC (H) | 1-4 | L |
League standings
No stored table rows for either side yet — the standings snapshot fills as the competition is collected. no standings rows held for either side.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
AZ Alkmaar 4 wins1 drawWillem II 1avg 3.8 goalsBTTS 67%Over 2.5 in 67%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | Willem II v AZ Alkmaar | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2024-11-10 | AZ Alkmaar v Willem II | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2022-03-20 | Willem II v AZ Alkmaar | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2021-12-18 | AZ Alkmaar v Willem II | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| 2021-04-03 | Willem II v AZ Alkmaar | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| 2020-12-20 | AZ Alkmaar v Willem II | 5-3 | Eredivisie |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Team sheets as announced 2026-09-11 17:45 — positions are the provider's own, never predicted.
4-2-3-1
| 28 | J. De Busser | G |
| 22 | E. Dijkstra | D |
| 3 | W. Goes | D |
| 4 | L. Schouten | D |
| 5 | M. Chávez | D |
| 8 | J. Clasie | M |
| 6 | P. Koopmeiners | M |
| 14 | C. Stengs | M |
| 21 | D. Kwakman | M |
| 11 | R. Daal | M |
| 9 | M. Meerdink | F |
Bench
34 M. de Wit D · 12 H. Verhulst G · 7 Weslley Patati F · 1 R. Owusu-Oduro G · 24 A. Oufkir F · 2 S. Maikuma D · 31 R. Ichihara D · 19 J. Hornkamp F · 29 W. Hoedt D · 17 V. Byskov M · 18 B. Kovacs F
Coach L. Echteld — from the announced team sheet
Missing regulars
J. Hornkamp (importance atk 0.22 def 0 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
K. Smit (importance atk 0.18 def 0.01 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
M. de Wit (importance atk 0.05 def 0.11 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
R. Ichihara (importance atk 0.05 def 0.09 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
S. Maikuma (importance atk 0.04 def 0.09 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
Weslley Patati (importance atk 0.11 def 0.01 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
A. Oufkir (importance atk 0.1 def 0 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
B. van Duijl (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
H. Verhulst (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
R. Owusu-Oduro (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
S. de Grand (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
K. Smit (importance atk 0.18 def 0.01 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
M. de Wit (importance atk 0.05 def 0.11 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
R. Ichihara (importance atk 0.05 def 0.09 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
S. Maikuma (importance atk 0.04 def 0.09 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
Weslley Patati (importance atk 0.11 def 0.01 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
A. Oufkir (importance atk 0.1 def 0 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
B. van Duijl (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
H. Verhulst (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
R. Owusu-Oduro (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
S. de Grand (importance atk 0.03 def 0.05 — derived from stored season minutes/goals, deterministic)
4-2-3-1
| 26 | M. Delanghe | G |
| 5 | H. ter Avest | D |
| 3 | F. Stam | D |
| 23 | M. Dekker | D |
| 24 | N. Tjoe-A-On | D |
| 52 | T. Vilhena | M |
| 6 | C. Twigt | M |
| 22 | Per van Loon | M |
| 19 | Uriel van Aalst | M |
| 7 | J. Slory | M |
| 9 | D. Haen | F |
Bench
21 W. van der Steen G · 31 K. de Leeuw G · 28 T. Verheydt F · 17 O. Martin F · 14 Jens Mathijsen D · 83 M. Lemmens D · 50 E. Gürbüz F · 15 A. Et-Taïbi D · 2 A. Ciranni D · 8 K. Boogaard M
Coach J. Stegeman — from the announced team sheet
Team sheets fetched 2026-09-11 17:45 — as announced, never predicted.
Lineup strength adjusts the engine's prediction ledger (expected-goals context); it does not change the production score — that rule is architectural, not an omission.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Dutch Eredivisie fixtures
FC Twente Enschede v ADO Den HaagGo Ahead Eagles v GroningenFortuna Sittard v AjaxSC Cambuur v NEC NijmegenHeerenveen v SC TelstarExcelsior v FC Utrecht
Frequently asked questions
When do AZ Alkmaar play Willem II?
Kick-off is Fri 11 Sept, 19:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.