Fortuna Sittard v Ajax — Dutch Eredivisie prediction, odds and analysis
ERE·Regular Season - 6·Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 UK·Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard· 19.4°C · 9 kph wind·J. ManschotAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
Fortuna SittardvAjax
Sat 12 Sept, 19:00Fortuna Sittard6.80Betfair
Draw5.30Betfair
Ajax1.48Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 19 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion, SittardReferee: J. ManschotKickoff weather: 19.4°C · rain 0 mm · wind 9 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWLLWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.75 / 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 8% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | at ADO Den Haag (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-28 | at Groningen (A) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | vs AZ (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-22 | vs AZ Alkmaar (H) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-08-15 | vs Cambuur (H) | 3-1 | W |
LWWWWD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 3 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 92% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | vs PSV Eindhoven (H) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-08-30 | at Telstar (A) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | at Telstar 1963 (A) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-08-27 | vs FC Sion (H) | 5-3 | W |
| 2026-08-20 | at FC Sion (A) | 4-2 | W |
Key players (this season, by minutes)
| Player | Apps | Mins | G | A | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A. Bouwman Defender |
5 | 457 | 0 | 0 | 1Y | 7.2 |
 Y. Regeer Midfielder |
5 | 412 | 0 | 1 | 1Y | 7.3 |
 M. Paes Goalkeeper |
4 | 367 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.0 |
 D. Blind Defender |
4 | 322 | 0 | 0 | — | 7.7 |
 S. Berghuis Attacker |
4 | 307 | 1 | 3 | — | 7.7 |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 10 | 5 | +2 | |
| Ajax | 8 | 7 | 4 | +4 |
Fortuna Sittard: 5 pts behind 1st · 9 pts above 18th
Ajax: 8 pts behind 1st · 6 pts above 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · football-data.org · updated 2026-09-11.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Fortuna Sittard 0 wins2 drawsAjax 2avg 3.3 goalsBTTS 75%Over 2.5 in 75%
small sample — 4 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | AFC Ajax v Fortuna Sittard | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| 2025-12-06 | Fortuna Sittard v AFC Ajax | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| 2024-03-10 | AFC Ajax v Fortuna Sittard | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| 2023-09-03 | Fortuna Sittard v AFC Ajax | 0-0 | Eredivisie |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Dutch Eredivisie fixtures
AZ Alkmaar v Willem IIFC Twente Enschede v ADO Den HaagGo Ahead Eagles v GroningenSC Cambuur v NEC NijmegenHeerenveen v SC TelstarExcelsior v FC Utrecht
Frequently asked questions
When do Fortuna Sittard play Ajax?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 19:00 UK time in the Dutch Eredivisie.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.