Grêmio v Palmeiras — Brazil Série A prediction, odds and analysis
At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
GrêmiovPalmeiras
Sun 20 Sept, 15:00Grêmio3.55Casumo
Draw3.40Casumo
Palmeiras2.15888sport
Best captured price per outcome · 12 bookmakers · prices observed 17 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Kickoff weather: 17.2°C · rain 2.2 mm · wind 14.7 kph · goals dampener -5%
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLWWDL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1 / 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | vs Vasco DA Gama (H) | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-09-07 | at Vitoria (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-03 | vs Internacional (H) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Chapecoense-sc (H) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-08-27 | at Internacional (A) | 0-0 | D |
WWWDDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.33 / 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 33% |
| Clean sheets | 67% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | vs Sao Paulo (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-09 | vs LDU de Quito (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-09 | vs LDU Quito (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | at Botafogo (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | at Botafogo FR (A) | 0-0 | D |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Grêmio 2 wins1 drawPalmeiras 3avg 2.5 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Palmeiras v Gremio | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-11-26 | Gremio v Palmeiras | 3-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-07-27 | Palmeiras v Gremio | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-11-09 | Palmeiras v Gremio | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-07-04 | Gremio v Palmeiras | 2-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-09-22 | Gremio v Palmeiras | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 12 Sept, 07:04 · model run 8 Sept, 07:07
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Palmeiras v Sao PauloBotafogo v Bragantino-SPSantos v CruzeiroMirassol v VitoriaFlamengo v CorinthiansBahia v Remo
Frequently asked questions
When do Grêmio play Palmeiras?
Kick-off is Sun 20 Sept, 15:00 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 12 September at 08:04 UK time. · engine slate assembled 17 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.