Palmeiras v Sao Paulo — Brazil Série A prediction, odds and analysis
BSA·Regular Season - 27·Sat 12 Sept, 22:30 UK·Allianz Parque, Sao Paulo· 18.7°C · 9.6 kph wind · 4.3 mm rain
At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
PalmeirasvSao Paulo
Sat 12 Sept, 22:30Palmeiras1.71Matchbook
Draw3.95Matchbook
Sao Paulo5.70Matchbook
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Allianz Parque, Sao PauloKickoff weather: 18.7°C · rain 4.3 mm · wind 9.6 kph · goals dampener -5%
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWDDDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.25 / 0.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 58% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | vs LDU de Quito (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-09 | vs LDU Quito (H) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-06 | at Botafogo (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | at Botafogo FR (A) | 0-0 | D |
| 2026-09-03 | at Santos (A) | 0-0 | D |
LWWWLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.17 / 1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | at Boca Juniors (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Atletico-MG (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs CA Mineiro (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs RB Bragantino (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | at Chapecoense AF (A) | 0-1 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2 | 53 | 26 | +24 | |
| Sao Paulo | 10 | 33 | 25 | +3 |
Palmeiras: 1 pt behind 1st · 36 pts above 20th
Sao Paulo: 21 pts behind 1st · 16 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · football-data.org · updated 2026-09-11.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Palmeiras 6 wins0 drawsSao Paulo 0avg 2.7 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 50%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sao Paulo v Palmeiras | 0-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-10-05 | São Paulo FC v SE Palmeiras | 2-3 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A |
| 2025-10-05 | Sao Paulo v Palmeiras | 2-3 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-05-11 | SE Palmeiras v São Paulo FC | 1-0 | Campeonato Brasileiro Série A |
| 2025-05-11 | Palmeiras v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-08-18 | Palmeiras v Sao Paulo | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
No recent injury snapshot for these teams.
Availability snapshots are captured daily for covered leagues; a fixture outside those
competitions won't have one — that is a coverage statement, not "no injuries".
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Coritiba v Atletico ParanaenseCoritiba v Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Mineiro v FluminenseGrêmio v Vasco da GamaAtletico Mineiro v FluminenseGrêmio v Vasco da Gama
Frequently asked questions
When do Palmeiras play Sao Paulo?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 22:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.