Lecce v Monza — Serie A - Italy prediction, odds and analysis
SA·Regular Season - 4·Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 UK·Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce· 26.5°C · 17 kph wind·V. CrezziniAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
LeccevMonza
Sun 13 Sept, 14:00Lecce2.82Smarkets
Draw3.20Ladbrokes
Monza2.94Smarkets
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Stadio Via del Mare, LecceReferee: V. CrezziniKickoff weather: 26.5°C · rain 0 mm · wind 17 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LLLWLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.25 / 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 25% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | at Cagliari (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-09-07 | at Cagliari Calcio (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-08-31 | vs AS Roma (H) | 0-4 | L |
| 2026-08-23 | at Venezia (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-17 | at Palermo (A) | 0-2 | L |
DDWLLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.83 / 2.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | at Parma Calcio 1913 (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-06 | at Parma (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-09-01 | at Torino (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Udinese (H) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Udinese Calcio (H) | 2-3 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 14 | 3 | 3 | -3 | LLW |
| Monza | 17 | 1 | 3 | -4 | DLL |
Lecce: 6 pts behind 1st · 3 pts above 20th
Monza: 8 pts behind 1st · 1 pt above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Lecce 1 win5 drawsMonza 0avg 1.8 goalsBTTS 83%Over 2.5 in 17%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-16 | Monza v Lecce | 0-0 | Serie A |
| 2024-12-15 | Lecce v Monza | 2-1 | Serie A |
| 2024-04-27 | US Lecce v AC Monza | 1-1 | Serie A |
| 2024-04-27 | Lecce v Monza | 1-1 | Serie A |
| 2023-09-17 | AC Monza v US Lecce | 1-1 | Serie A |
| 2023-09-17 | Monza v Lecce | 1-1 | Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Leccesnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| W. Geubbels | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Banda | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Berisha | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Geubbels | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| L. Banda | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Berisha | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Geubbels | Questionable | Injury |
| L. Banda | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Berisha | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| W. Geubbels | Questionable | Injury |
| L. Banda | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Berisha | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| L. Banda | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| M. Berisha | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
Monzasnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| M. Pessina | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| D. Mota | Missing Fixture | Suspended |
| D. Thiam | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| P. Ciurria | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| I. Toure | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| G. Varela | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| J. Ziolkowski | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| L. Colombo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| E. Akinsanmiro | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| M. Pessina | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| D. Mota | Missing Fixture | Suspended |
| D. Thiam | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| P. Ciurria | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| I. Toure | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| G. Varela | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Serie A - Italy fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Lecce play Monza?
Kick-off is Sun 13 Sept, 14:00 UK time in the Serie A - Italy.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.