M

Monza

Serie A - Italy·15 of 20 in the table·7 points·Stadio Brianteo

Next match Monza v Napoli Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Monza — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

68.3

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

98.1%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

17th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 Napoli H — 4.40Betfair Exchange — Sat 31 Oct14:00 Bologna A — 4.50Betfred —

Form

last 6

LWLWLD 7 pts from 6

A Torino 2–3 -0.9

H Cagliari 4–0 +1.5

A Lazio 1–3 -0.5

H Sassuolo 2–1 +1.5

A Lecce 2–3 -1.1

A Parma 1–1 +0.2

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+0.2 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Goals scored 1.88 #6 of 20

Expected goals for 1.67 #6 of 20

Shots on target 5.5 #7 of 20

Shots faced 13.6 #7 of 20

Weaknesses

Shots 13 #14 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #14 of 20

Possession 45% #15 of 20

Goals conceded 2.25 #18 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.88 #6 of 20

Expected goals 1.67 #6 of 20

Shots 13 #14 of 20

On target 5.5 #7 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 2.25 #18 of 20

Expected against 1.41 #11 of 20

Shots faced 13.6 #7 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #14 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

36%

Scored before half time

of 14 goals

14%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 14 goals

7%

From the penalty spot

of 14 goals

16%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 19 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (33 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SA Serie A - Italy 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#15

Position

7

Points from 8 played

-3

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
13	Bologna	8	-2	8
14	Sassuolo	8	-4	8
15	Monza	8	-3	7
16	Udinese	7	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	-8	4

Monza and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 43h 10m
   Monza Napoli

   SA

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct14:00in 5d
   Bologna Monza

   SA

   Regular Season - 10
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 3 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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