G

Genoa

Serie A - Italy·17 of 20 in the table·4 points·Luigi Ferraris (Marassi)

Next match Genoa v Juventus Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Genoa — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

2 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

67.7

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.5%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

9th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

2 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 Juventus H — 6.00Smarkets — Sun 1 Nov17:00 Lecce A — 2.70Unibet —

Form

last 6

WLWLDL 7 pts from 6

H Venezia 1–0 +1.1

A AS Roma 0–2 -0.6

H Fiorentina 2–1 +1.7

A Parma 1–2 -0.9

H Frosinone 1–1 -1.1

H Como 1–4 -1.7

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-3.4 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Weaknesses

Possession 44.6% #16 of 20

Points over model expectation -3.4 #16 of 20

Goals scored 0.75 #17 of 20

Shots 10.6 #17 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 0.75 #17 of 20

Expected goals 0.88 #19 of 20

Shots 10.6 #17 of 20

On target 3 #20 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.63 #12 of 20

Expected against 1.25 #8 of 20

Shots faced 15.8 #13 of 20

Clean sheets 1 #13 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

63%

Scored before half time

of 8 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 8 goals

13%

From the penalty spot

of 8 goals

33%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 12 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (20 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SA Serie A - Italy 2 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#17

Position

4

Points from 7 played

-8

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
15	Monza	8	-3	7
16	Udinese	7	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	-9	4
19	Parma	8	-10	4

Genoa and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 41h 16m
   Genoa Juventus

   SA

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 1 Nov17:00in 6d
   Lecce Genoa

   SA

   Regular Season - 10
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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