Monza v Napoli — Serie A - Italy prediction, odds and analysis
SAAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
MonzavNapoli
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45Monza4.40Betfair
Draw4.00Betway
Napoli1.88Smarkets
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 16 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Stadio Brianteo, MonzaKickoff weather: 13.1°C · rain 0 mm · wind 4.1 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LWWLDW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2 / 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | at Torino (A) | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-10-19 | vs Cagliari (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-10-19 | vs Cagliari Calcio (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-10-11 | at Lazio (A) | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-10-03 | at Stade Brestois 29 (A) | 2-2 | D |
DWWLLW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.83 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | vs AS Roma (H) | 3-3 | D |
| 2026-10-20 | vs Bodo/Glimt (H) | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-10-20 | vs FK Bodø/Glimt (H) | 4-3 | W |
| 2026-10-17 | at Venezia (A) | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-10-13 | at Villarreal (A) | 1-3 | L |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 15 | 7 | 8 | -3 | LWLWL |
| Napoli | 9 | 11 | 8 | +3 | DLWDW |
Monza: 15 pts behind 1st · 4 pts above 20th
Napoli: 11 pts behind 1st · 8 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-10-25.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Monza 0 wins2 drawsNapoli 4avg 2.5 goalsBTTS 33%Over 2.5 in 33%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Monza v Napoli | 0-1 | Serie A |
| 2024-09-29 | Napoli v Monza | 2-0 | Serie A |
| 2024-04-07 | AC Monza v SSC Napoli | 2-4 | Serie A |
| 2024-04-07 | Monza v Napoli | 2-4 | Serie A |
| 2023-12-29 | SSC Napoli v AC Monza | 0-0 | Serie A |
| 2023-12-29 | Napoli v Monza | 0-0 | Serie A |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Monzasnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| C. Ngonge | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| M. Pessina | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| D. Mota | Missing Fixture | Suspended |
| D. Thiam | Missing Fixture | Yellow Cards |
| P. Ciurria | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| I. Toure | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| E. Zeballos | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| G. Varela | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| L. Lucchesi | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Ziolkowski | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| L. Colombo | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| E. Akinsanmiro | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Y. Maye | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| C. Ngonge | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| M. Pessina | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Napolisnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A. Meret | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| David Neres | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| L. Spinazzola | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| S. McTominay | Missing Fixture | Heart Problems |
| F. Anguissa | Missing Fixture | Groin Injury |
| A. Buongiorno | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| M. Olivera | Missing Fixture | Groin Injury |
| M. Folorunsho | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| Alisson Santos | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| Giovane | Missing Fixture | Groin Injury |
| A. Vergara | Missing Fixture | Calf Injury |
| C. Favasuli | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| L. Marianucci | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| A. Meret | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| David Neres | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 19 Oct, 07:03 · injury snapshot 2026-10-25
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Serie A - Italy fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Monza play Napoli?
Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 UK time in the Serie A - Italy.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 16 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.