N

Napoli

Serie A - Italy·9 of 20 in the table·11 points·Diego Armando Maradona

Next match Monza v Napoli Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Napoli — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

71.6

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.6%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

0 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

2nd

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 Monza A — 1.88Smarkets — Sun 1 Nov19:45 Juventus A — 4.40Betano (UK) — Wed 4 Nov20:00 Porto A — 3.15LiveScore Bet —

Form

last 6

DLWDWL 8 pts from 6

H AS Roma 3–3 -0.6

A Venezia 0–1 -1.9

H Frosinone 3–0 +0.5

A Fiorentina 1–1 -0.2

H Bologna 1–0 +0.9

A Inter 2–3 -0.9

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-2.9 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 0.93 #3 of 20

Expected goals for 1.87 #4 of 20

Shots on target 6 #4 of 20

Clean sheets 3 #4 of 20

Weaknesses

Shots faced 16.6 #15 of 20

Points over model expectation -2.9 #15 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.63 #9 of 20

Expected goals 1.87 #4 of 20

Shots 16.6 #5 of 20

On target 6 #4 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1.25 #8 of 20

Expected against 0.93 #3 of 20

Shots faced 16.6 #15 of 20

Clean sheets 3 #4 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

36%

Scored before half time

of 14 goals

29%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 14 goals

14%

From the penalty spot

of 14 goals

30%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 10 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (24 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SA Serie A - Italy 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#9

Position

11

Points from 8 played

+3

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
7	Torino	8	2	13
8	Cagliari	8	-3	13
9	Napoli	8	3	11
10	Juventus	7	1	11
11	Atalanta	7	-1	9

Napoli and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 40h 01m
   Monza Napoli

   SA

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sun 1 Nov19:45in 6d
   Juventus Napoli

   SA
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Wed 4 Nov20:00in 9d
   Porto Napoli

   UCL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

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