J

Juventus

Serie A - Italy·10 of 20 in the table·11 points·Allianz Stadium

Next match Genoa v Juventus Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for Juventus — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

78.1

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.7%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

1 settled call on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

1st

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct19:45 Genoa A — 1.75Smarkets — Thu 29 Oct17:45 Austria Wien A — 2.17Casumo — Sun 1 Nov19:45 Napoli H — 1.85Coral —

Form

last 6

WLDWLD 8 pts from 6

A Lecce 2–0 +0.9

H Lazio 0–3 -2.0

A Cagliari 1–1 -0.9

H Atalanta 2–0 +0.8

A Sassuolo 2–3 -1.9

H AC Milan 1–1 -0.8

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

-2.5 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Expected goals against 0.57 #1 of 20

Shots faced 8.4 #1 of 20

Clean sheets 4 #3 of 20

Possession 58.3% #4 of 20

Weaknesses

Points over model expectation -2.5 #14 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 1.38 #12 of 20

Expected goals 1.43 #11 of 20

Shots 15.6 #6 of 20

On target 5.3 #8 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 1 #5 of 20

Expected against 0.57 #1 of 20

Shots faced 8.4 #1 of 20

Clean sheets 4 #3 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

36%

Scored before half time

of 11 goals

55%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 11 goals

0%

From the penalty spot

of 11 goals

38%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 8 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (19 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SA Serie A - Italy 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#10

Position

11

Points from 7 played

+1

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
8	Cagliari	8	-3	13
9	Napoli	8	3	11
10	Juventus	7	1	11
11	Atalanta	7	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	-3	9

Juventus and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct19:45in 29h 32m
   Genoa Juventus

   SA

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Thu 29 Oct17:45in 2d
   Austria Wien Juventus

   UCL

   League Stage - 3
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Sun 1 Nov19:45in 5d
   Juventus Napoli

   SA
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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