Leeds United v Newcastle United — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
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Model edge
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Model prob
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Reliability
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Leeds UnitedvNewcastle United
Mon 14 Sept, 20:00Leeds United2.48Betfair
Draw3.60Betfred (UK)
Newcastle United3.05Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Elland Road, Leeds
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
LDDWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.83 / 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 42% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | at Chelsea (A) | 3-6 | L |
| 2026-09-05 | at Brighton (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | vs Brentford (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-25 | at Nottingham Forest (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | at Nottingham Forest (A) | 1-0 | W |
WDWWDD
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 1.67 / 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 25% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | at Millwall (A) | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | vs Bournemouth (H) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | at Tottenham (A) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-08-26 | vs West Brom (H) | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-08-23 | vs Liverpool (H) | 2-2 | D |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 9 | 5 | 3 | +1 | DDW |
| Newcastle United | 7 | 5 | 3 | +2 | DWD |
Leeds United: 4 pts behind 1st · 5 pts above 20th
Newcastle United: 4 pts behind 1st · 5 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Leeds United 0 wins4 drawsNewcastle United 2avg 2.3 goalsBTTS 50%Over 2.5 in 33%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | Newcastle United FC v Leeds United FC | 4-3 | Premier League |
| 2025-08-30 | Leeds United FC v Newcastle United FC | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2023-05-13 | Leeds v Newcastle | 2-2 | Premier League |
| 2022-12-31 | Newcastle v Leeds | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2022-01-22 | Leeds v Newcastle | 0-1 | Premier League |
| 2021-09-17 | Newcastle v Leeds | 1-1 | Premier League |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Leeds Unitedsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| J. Rodon | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| G. Gudmundsson | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| I. Gruev | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| W. Gnonto | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| M. Joseph | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Rodon | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| G. Gudmundsson | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| I. Gruev | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| W. Gnonto | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| M. Joseph | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Rodon | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| G. Gudmundsson | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| I. Gruev | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| W. Gnonto | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| M. Joseph | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
Newcastle Unitedsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Joelinton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Burn | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| V. Livramento | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| W. Osula | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Joelinton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Burn | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| V. Livramento | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| W. Osula | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Joelinton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Burn | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| V. Livramento | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
| W. Osula | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| Joelinton | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| D. Burn | Missing Fixture | Ankle Injury |
| V. Livramento | Missing Fixture | Hamstring Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Leeds United play Newcastle United?
Kick-off is Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.