Bournemouth v Brentford — EPL prediction, odds and analysis
EPLAt a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
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qualification
BournemouthvBrentford
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00Bournemouth2.58Betfair
Draw3.75Betfred (UK)
Brentford2.86Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 21 bookmakers · prices observed 12 h ago
RESEARCH VIEW
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Vitality Stadium, BournemouthKickoff weather: 19.2°C · rain 0 mm · wind 22 kph
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
No event timeline is held for this fixture yet.
Goals, cards and substitutions arrive with the in-play sweep and the post-match pass.
Timeline and match statistics
Match statistics start at kick-off
there is nothing to count until the match is under way
The model's expected goals for this fixture are in the Model tab.
Form and league position
WWDDLL
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 3 / 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 83% |
| Clean sheets | 17% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | vs Lincoln (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-09-08 | vs Lincoln City (H) | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-09-05 | at Newcastle (A) | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-08-29 | vs Everton (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-23 | at Manchester City (A) | 1-2 | L |
DDWWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.42 / 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | vs Sunderland (H) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-30 | at Leeds (A) | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-08-25 | at Birmingham (A) | 6-1 | W |
| 2026-08-22 | vs Tottenham (H) | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-08-15 | vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) | 7-0 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 15 | 2 | 3 | -1 | DDL |
| Brentford | 5 | 5 | 3 | +3 | DDW |
Bournemouth: 7 pts behind 1st · 2 pts above 20th
Brentford: 4 pts behind 1st · 5 pts above 20th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-09-09.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Bournemouth 0 wins1 drawBrentford 5avg 3.2 goalsBTTS 83%Over 2.5 in 83%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | AFC Bournemouth v Brentford FC | 0-0 | Premier League |
| 2025-12-27 | Brentford FC v AFC Bournemouth | 4-1 | Premier League |
| 2025-03-15 | Bournemouth v Brentford | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-11-09 | Brentford v Bournemouth | 3-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-05-11 | AFC Bournemouth v Brentford FC | 1-2 | Premier League |
| 2024-05-11 | Bournemouth v Brentford | 1-2 | Premier League |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Line-ups not released
clubs confirm an XI about an hour before kick-off
Squad availability and reported absences are below.
Injuries and absences
Bournemouthsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| R. Christie | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Araujo | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Adli | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| J. Soler | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| E. J. Kroupi | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| V. Milosavljevic | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| R. Christie | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Araujo | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Adli | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| J. Soler | Missing Fixture | Lacking Match Fitness |
| E. J. Kroupi | Missing Fixture | Foot Injury |
| V. Milosavljevic | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| R. Christie | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| J. Araujo | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Adli | Missing Fixture | Injury |
Brentfordsnapshot 2026-09-09
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| J. Dasilva | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| S. van den Berg | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Jensen | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Milambo | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Dasilva | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| S. van den Berg | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Jensen | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Milambo | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Dasilva | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| S. van den Berg | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Jensen | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| A. Milambo | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| J. Dasilva | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| S. van den Berg | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| M. Jensen | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 11 Sept, 07:02 · model run 1 Sept, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-09-09
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
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Frequently asked questions
When do Bournemouth play Brentford?
Kick-off is Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 UK time in the EPL.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.